The core logic of gold trading next week:

7 hari yang lalu

1. Technical pattern signal
Long upper shadow positive line: the market has not broken through the high, the bulls are exhausted, and the short-term top formation signal of the disk has begun to appear.

Double top pattern: 2940 area has not broken through twice, confirming the double top structure, indicating a trend reversal (up → down).

Daily big negative line: After failing to touch the high for the second time, it plummeted, and the short-selling momentum is strong, and it may continue to decline in the short term.

2. Key Support and Resistance
Monday's strength and weakness divide: 2888. A weak shock will not give too many opportunities and will directly go lower around here. If it rebounds, it will be a shock trend in the short term. High altitude and low price!

Resistance zone: 2900 (short-term long and short watershed), 2926 (daily strong resistance).

Support zone: 2840-2850 (first target), 2790-2800 (extended target after breaking).

Watershed principle: if it stands firm at 2900, it will be vigilant to induce a bullish rebound to reach a wave of highs before falling; if it falls below 2850, it will open up downward space.

3. News variables
Russia-Ukraine negotiations: If the negotiations go smoothly, the risk aversion sentiment will cool down, which is bad for gold; if there are repetitions (such as "the peace talks have never produced any results"), gold may rebound.

Important data: It is necessary to pay attention to events that may cause fluctuations, such as the Fed's policies and inflation data.

Trading strategy and operation plan for February 17:
Direction selection: High-short is the main, low-long is the auxiliary
Rebound to the 2903-2908 area, light position split short, flexible manual stop loss according to the position, target 2860-2840.

High-level short order: If it rebounds to a high-level short order near 2926, stop loss 2935, target 2900-2850.

The weak position unexpectedly broke at the beginning of the week. Follow and pay attention to the break below 2840!

Short-term rebound plan: Touch the area around 2850-2840 and start to try short-term long targets 2870-2888.

If it rebounds, you need to be careful about tempting bulls, don't chase the rise for the time being, and beware of sub-highs.

Extreme situation plan:
Break above 2926: If there is a sudden positive news (such as escalation of geopolitical conflicts), the double top will fail, and you need to stop the short order and wait and see.

Break below 2790: Open up long-term falling space, and you can flexibly increase short positions with the trend, with a target of 2750-2740.

Risk management essentials:
Position control
Single transaction position ≤5%, total position ≤20%, avoid heavy positions to resist orders.
Gold volatility is high (recent daily average fluctuations of 30-50 US dollars), and sufficient margin needs to be reserved.

Stop loss setting:
It is recommended to adopt manual flexible stop loss for intraday short-term to avoid accidental sweeps.

Time window:
Key period at the beginning of the week: If the market falls directly at the opening on Monday, it may accelerate the bottoming out, and we need to keep a close eye on the breakout of 2860.

Data nodes: Pay attention to the progress of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, the speech of the Federal Reserve and other events in advance to avoid the risk of holding positions before the data!

Technical analysis supplement:
The validity of the double top pattern: the neckline level (about 2850 in this case) must be met to effectively fall below. The theoretical target of the decline = the height from the top to the neckline (2940-2850≈90 US dollars), corresponding to the target of around 2760.

Top-bottom conversion: If the 2840 support breaks, this position will be converted into resistance for subsequent rebounds and can be used as a secondary short-selling point during the counter-draw.

Identification of bullish temptation: If the price rebounds and stands firm at 2900 but does not break the previous high, and MACD/RSI shows a top divergence, it is a false breakthrough signal.

Summarize:
Core idea: The double top pattern dominates short-term bearishness, and the rebound to the resistance area (2903-2908, 2926) is mainly high-altitude, breaking the position to chase the short.

Risk warning: The news may reverse the technical pattern, so you need to strictly stop loss and pay attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the dynamics of the Federal Reserve.

Execution discipline: Avoid bottom-fishing against the trend, give priority to following the trend, and if the market deviates from expectations, stop loss decisively and observe again.

6 hari yang lalu

Trade aktif

Analysis of the latest gold trading strategy on February 17

Spot gold rebounded slightly during the European session on Monday (February 17), but the strength was limited. The daily decline reached 1.5% last Friday, falling from the historical high. However, it should be noted that the price volatility increased significantly after the long squeeze, and it was running at a high level. The longs took profits, causing the gold price to adjust. The gold price is approaching $2,905/ounce, up more than $22 a day. At present, the Trump administration plans to formally impose tariffs on auto imports on April 2, which may have a wide impact on the global supply chain. Although some investors believe that Trump's tariff policy is mainly a negotiation strategy, the market remains cautious about possible uncertainties in the future. In addition to safe-haven demand, the central bank's continued gold purchases are also a key factor in maintaining high gold prices. According to market surveys, major central banks around the world, especially those in major Asian countries, continue to increase their gold reserves to hedge against global economic uncertainties. Monday is the US President's Day holiday. The US stock market is closed and the precious metals market is closed early. Market trading may be limited. Pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Board member Bowman and Trump's dynamic news, and pay attention to news related to the situation between Russia and Ukraine. There are relatively few economic data this week, mainly due to the US real estate market data and the initial value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in February. Pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Analysis of gold market trend:
Gold technical analysis: Gold surged higher and fell again last Friday. Although it did not hit a new high again, it also touched a record high near 2940 and then quickly retreated. The lowest hit around 2876 and then began to reverse correction. It rose directly after the opening of the day and currently reached the highest level. Near 2905, it is also approaching the key suppression point for top-bottom transition. As for the daily line, last Friday's sharp decline, the daily line closed at the big negative line, also broke the previous upward trend, so the retracement is still expected to continue in the short term, and the morning counterattack may also be a short position. Self-correction, and the support below will continue to be maintained near the low point of last week. The focus is also on the strength of the European session. Once the European session continues to retreat, the US session will still have a signal to continue to short, and the support below the daily line will also be maintained near the 10-day moving average. Once this position continues to break, it will form a continuous negative line pattern, and then a large-scale retracement will be formed in the later period;According to our trading strategy analysis last weekend, our professional senior gold analyst team has given a short order trading strategy at 2903-2905 during today's Asian trading time, and then took profits at 2888-2890, with a maximum profit of 150PIPS.

Gold is suppressed by the double top structure in 4 hours. Gold rebounded to 2905 and fell directly. Gold continued to short at highs after rebounding below 2905 in the European session. Gold shorts have just begun and are not afraid of rebounds. Gold rebounded, and gold rebounded to 2905 and went short directly. Gold fell as expected and harvested first. Gold is now just a rebound market, and the European session rebounded and continued to go short. On the whole, Our team of professional and senior gold analysts suggested that shorting on rebounds is the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and long on pullbacks is supplemented. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2905-2910 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2864-2834 line of support.

Judging from the current trend of gold, today's support at the bottom will focus on the vicinity of 2875-2885, and the pressure on the top will focus on the vicinity of 2908-2913. The overall situation relies on this range to maintain a high-altitude, low-multiple cycle to participate in the main tone. In the middle position, watch more and move less, pursue orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.

Gold operation strategy for today:

1. If gold rebounds, you can go short on the 2910-2915 line, with a stop loss of 2922 and a target of 2890-2897;

2. If gold falls back on the 2875-2883 line, go long with short positions, and if it falls back on the 2868-2870 line, cover long positions, stop loss at 2862, target the 2910-2915 line; continue to hold if the position is broken!

5 hari yang lalu

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Analysis of the latest gold trend on February 18:

In the early European trading session on Tuesday (February 18), spot gold fell short-term from its intraday high. The current gold price is around $2,910/ounce. Earlier, the gold price was close to $2,916/ounce. On Tuesday, senior representatives from the United States and Russia will hold a meeting to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This is the most talked about event of the day and is expected to trigger market movements. Developments surrounding negotiations between the Kremlin and Washington will be a major market driver. If the talks do not go smoothly, risk aversion may intensify, and gold prices may find new safe-haven demand and rise in tandem with the US dollar. On the other hand, further progress on a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war could help geopolitical tensions continue to ease, making it difficult for gold to build bullish momentum. Gold can act as a geopolitical hedge, an inflation hedge, and a hedge against the US dollar at the same time. It is the first two factors that have made gold such a strong investment over the past year, while buying by central banks and retail investors has also pushed up gold prices. The recent decline in the dollar has increased upward pressure on dollar-denominated gold, making it cheaper to buy gold in other currencies. This year, strong buying by central banks is expected to be a key factor driving gold demand as they seek to reduce their reliance on the dollar. Fundamentally, although the gold market faces some profit-taking pressure in the short term, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. The Trump administration's tariff plans, inflation expectations, a weaker dollar and global trade tensions will continue to support gold's rising prospects. At the same time, weak US economic data and a sharp drop in retail sales may mean that the US economy faces some risk of slowing growth, as well as the Fed's policy uncertainty, which will further strengthen the market's demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.


In recent weeks, gold has become the best-performing "Trump trade", outperforming other major asset classes since Donald Trump took office, as concerns about trade wars and potential blows to global economic growth have stimulated demand for safe-haven metals. As traders and banks scramble to ship gold from London, the world's largest physical trading center, to the United States, New York's gold reserves continue to increase, boosting gold prices. New York's gold reserves have increased by 116% since the US election. That led to weeks-long queues to take gold out of the Bank of England's vaults. Trump’s latest tariff offensive includes plans to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on U.S. trading partners, including allies and adversaries. He also imposed an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Analysts say a global trade war will curb economic growth and fuel inflation, factors that are generally bullish for gold. While gold continued its long-term rally, other "Trump trades" posted losses. The dollar has fallen 2.4% against a basket of other currencies this year and has also fallen sharply since Trump took office. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to just over 4.8% last month but has fallen back to 4.48% as bond prices have recovered. Traders and investors said the U.S. tariffs were taking a "gradual approach" compared to previous fears, boosting currencies such as the euro and causing the dollar's gains to stall. Meanwhile, the focus has shifted to the risks of the trade war to economic growth, prompting investors to buy government bonds.

Gold technical analysis:

From the technical perspective of gold, the trend of indicators and prices has been divergent in recent periods, suggesting that the trend may undergo a major turning point, but the downward trend has not been obvious so far. Yesterday, the price of gold was mainly volatile, recording a cross star K-line. After two failed upward attacks, the MACD indicator double lines began to send a dead cross reversal signal. The price stopped falling, suggesting that the lower support resistance is strong in the short term. It can be temporarily viewed as a volatile idea, and pay attention to the direction breakthrough after high-level consolidation. The short-term adjustment of gold is more of a technical correction. It is overbought and bullish sentiment is overheated. On the fundamentals, the expectations of Fed officials for interest rate cuts in 2025 are divergent, and inflation indicators continue to be paid attention to. From the daily line analysis, the daily moving average MACD high dead cross, but the first dead cross in the bull trend often forms a secondary buying point. The short-term moving average deviation value is too large, and the main waiting is for the moving average to move up. If the daily level long-short watershed near $2,880 is not broken, it will maintain high-level fluctuations, and the upper pressure is near $2,925. Taken together, in terms of gold's short-term operation today, our professional gold analyst team recommends going long by stepping back to lows, supplemented by shorting highs. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2925-2930 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term will focus on the 2895-2890 first-line support.

2.18 Gold Operation Strategy Reference:

Short Order Strategy:
Strategy 1: Short (Sell short) near 2925-2930 when gold rebounds, stop loss 6 points, target near 2900-2895, break to see 2890 line;

Long Order Strategy:
Strategy 2: Go long (buy up) near 2890-2895 when gold pulls back, stop loss 6 points, target near 2900-2910, break to see 2915 line;