3070 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 10-2, THE HARD WAY
Since May NFP (delivered early June) after which I called for 3000 by Halloween (10/31), something would get in the way every time I thought the call was right. This time is going to be the same but I am going to stand by this call.
First in chart above, this is the super-detailed 3-hour bar route for 3070 by Halloween. I spent most of the weekend on refining yellow route and came to realize that the current momentum will not expire until early Thursday. The ceiling for this route Wed-Thu is 2756, but then its get annoying by correcting hard to 2627 for Friday NFP. After a couple bounces, price would still be at 2650s on 10/10.
Do I have enough evidence to call for an extra 320 (12%) in the following 15 trading days? I do. This route however, is much more difficult to hit then yellow route because the last 220 points comes on last 3 days of October. Hence, I titled this draft, "THE HARD WAY" but I don't really believe that. Why? It was never supposed to be easy. So BASE CASE through Wednesday is staircase to 2756
First in chart above, this is the super-detailed 3-hour bar route for 3070 by Halloween. I spent most of the weekend on refining yellow route and came to realize that the current momentum will not expire until early Thursday. The ceiling for this route Wed-Thu is 2756, but then its get annoying by correcting hard to 2627 for Friday NFP. After a couple bounces, price would still be at 2650s on 10/10.
Do I have enough evidence to call for an extra 320 (12%) in the following 15 trading days? I do. This route however, is much more difficult to hit then yellow route because the last 220 points comes on last 3 days of October. Hence, I titled this draft, "THE HARD WAY" but I don't really believe that. Why? It was never supposed to be easy. So BASE CASE through Wednesday is staircase to 2756
Catatan
Catatan
9/30, 6:46 AM, last 90 minutes of selling has price on down trends line support .
a) short term routes need to be remap
b) will post update when I have it
Catatan
7:18 AM, I'm aware that it looks like this post:
a) it's not impossible
b) price regained the channel
c) lost it and finally got rejected the last 3 hours
e) and sold of to 2635
f) where it needed to be at on Friday to make this bear route on time
g) in that sense a delayed bear route to 2560-2570 is possible
h) that drops the October ceiling under 3000
i) so the number of routes for this week have exploded
j) but the 400-500 pt rally AFTER NFP DOES not change
Catatan
Catatan
8:11 AM this sell off since London open has made this red line a difficult trend to break:
Catatan
a) in chart above, first it's 8:28 AM an 2638.21 as I type
b) bears have a route to 2631-2622
c) whether or not bears hit this is kind of important
d) what's really important is the bulls' reaction if any
e) bc we are at a really important zone for GOLD'S ENTIRE LONG TERM RALLY
f) if you followed me in the spring...
g) I spent a couple months to determine that ceiling for 2025
h) and after moving to 6k+, eventually settled on 3750 for next year
i) if gold is going to do better than that...
j) IT MUST BE DONE THIS MONTH and
k) whether that be 29xx or 30xx doesn't particularly matter
l) but there's only one opportunity to change the long term picture ...
m) while all the combined trends say it's possible
n) and we aren't talking that much higher...
o) we are talking the difference between a 3600-3800 high vs a 4200-4400 high
Catatan
p) the price action for MON-TUE-WED determines the setup for
q) the rest of October (and the rest of October determines the final targets for Dec 2025)
r) if bulls do not defend 2635 and let price fall to 2622
s) the ceiling for October starts dropping faster and faster
t) so that is where we are at
Catatan
Catatan
2:11, 2632.xx and still dragging
a) if bulls don't show up here
b) obviously it's 2622
c) what's not obvious is... what happens after that?
Catatan
2:26, 2625.xx, this is really late for this move
a) it means no new high wed-thurs
b) it also means Friday floor is 2565-2575
c) now it's complicated
Catatan
Catatan
Catatan
HERE IS 10-3:
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