3450-2450, $1000 REVERSAL CONTINUOUS COVERAGE LANDING PAGE
I have the route. I have the pattern. Trend map readings reliability off the charts. But, you have to read all the notes in the previous draft first. If you haven't, this is not going to make sense. So do that first. Otherwise, this continues directly from previous notes. To sum it up, we are going to kill it. Will add more soon.
Catatan
2/18 - The rules of this game:
1) you have to read notes in previous draft to understand where we are
2) everything else going forward relies on that basic understanding
3) so do yourself a favor and read it first
4) then..
5) we are going to kill it
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6) chart above doesn't look like much
7) but it's a highly detailed break down of price action from now to 6/18 fomc
8) which is a highly jagged sideways move
9) that starts with a "sideways to up" pattern
10) that has a the channel holding despite 3-5 attempts to break it
11) notably at 2985, 3025-3030, and 3065-ish
12) while the floor holds at 2865 AND MAY OR MAY NOT INCREASE TO 2915
13) so like this:
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14) and Elliot Wave count for this sideways move to June....
15) should hit perfect-perfect (for a sideways move)
16) I will post that next when I have time
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17) along with a sample of such a moveCatatan
18) by the way, the hi-light at page at top says 3520, not 3450
19) I see why, now, that it should be 3500+
Catatan
2/19 10:35 AM ET NEW YORK TIME:
20) I see why - now - that it may be 3610
21) but before we get on to that, replay this chart from January 1st:
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22) so in chart above the call for June was 3333 with "significant in between volatility"
23) based on what we have right now, it's obvious price WILL take out 3390-3405 critical level
24) that is $875 (January 1980 high) adjusted for inflation for June 2025
25) with this alone, I am already above 3500
26) the question now is how much? 3510-3610 OR HIGHER?
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27) and no I am not getting ahead of myself at all
28) replay this from 10/07/24:
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29) in chart above, we started out this moving sharply lower after the election
30) but now we have caught up, and although this "sideways move' to June is a very strong pattern
31) it is NOT ENTIRELY OBVIOUS THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD
32) and that starts with incoming price action for next 8 weeks like this:
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33) so why are these things important now?
34) but really wasn't until price cleared 2840 and moved for 2866?
35) replay this long term chart once more from November of 2022
36) you have to hit replay button TWICE to load all the bars
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37) the zig-zag in post above from late 2022 called for 3750 high end of this year
38) price has made 2 moves quicker than that call
39) but OVERALL has basically has 3 stretches where
40) it first exceeded averages, then under performed averages, and now exceeding it again
41) but from a 10 year view, that means nothing
42) because from a common sense standpoint
43) THERE'S NO REASON WHY WE CAN'T ENTER ANOTHER 9 MONTHS OF UNDER PERFOMANCE
44) starting now (which would throw every thing off considerably)
45) all this is saying that 3750 (and anything above 3610)...
46) as a "hard target" meaning "MUST HIT BY 12/31/25"
47) has NEVER BEEN STATISTICALLY FAVORED
48) unless dark blue starts to happen as mentioned above
49) but even then, guaranteeing 3610 is not the same as favoring 3750
50) that depends on this move:
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51) 2/19, 11:57 AM ET, for the record, my call right now for the high is
52) 3585+/-25, in other words 3560-3610
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53) but in no situation can I make 2580 a favorite over 2425 as the post rally check down
54) this is because the technical move has a scale of 50 years
55) and even if price hits 3750, it has to prove that it can alter the the check down curve
56) by holding prices above 3333 long enough for the curves to shift
57) in which case, we can then raise the floor to 2580 and even higher to 2700
58) but price must PROVE THIS EACH STEP OF THE WAY DOWN FROM THE HIGH
59) until then, the call is strike 45-year trend line at 2415, 2425, or 2450
60) 2415 is for December/January, 2525 is for January/February
61) and 2450 or 1% higher if we somehow measured that wrong
62) this target does not move unless we have hard evidence by September
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63) so right now, on 2/19, it is 3585-2415
64) with the final adjustment 3666-2450 if need be
65) right now, we don't have evidence of a number higher than 3530 and some evidence of 3565
66) the intermediate curves forces me to place it at 3585
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a) and in that 25000 scenario, we have to hit 7300 in year 2029
b) to have "the room to make 25000" fit this pattern
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8) prior to the break of 2845, I wrote this: Catatan
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9) chart above was 16 days ago
10) we are now above 2924 with the door for 3075-3085 wide open
11) and I continued in that same post that:
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12) and finally wrote ...
>>> 02/025/25, 10:13 AM, 2873.XX -- MAJOR QUESTIONS ARE
>>>
>>> 1) where can you buy next?
>>> 2) the next time price retrace 110-160 points
>>> 3) THAT'S THE ONLY CHOICE LEFT (for an entry that's not annoying...)
>>> 4) if the retrace starts before 2900, that means the final high is 3800 window
>>> 5) if price challenges the channel top near 3000
>>> 6) the final high is implied to be 4900
13) I clarified later that it would mean 4800-5100
14) and in the following days I had trouble moving off this idea
15) but eventually I mentally shifted back to "let's make price prove it"
16) and now that the door to 3075-3085 is open for ..
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17) TUESDAY, 02/25/25, that's 5 days out...
18) here's some context on what that would mean:
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19) first, in chart above the 3750 high is actually 3750-3820
20) this is BEFORE ADJUSTMENTS to refine the look
21) with the backup plan that the next "up shift" would mean 4800-5100 high
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22) 11:15, I really want to make 3750-3820 base case
23) I am just waiting for 3075-3085
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2/20/25, 2:56 PM ET, 2-WAY VOL EXPLOSION, goddammit..
24) so if we get above 3000 Friday or Monday, this is base case:
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25) in chart above, it's going to get complicated but here's a list of major points:
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a) the 3 highs before June check down are 3075-3110-32xx
b) June check down is 2875, meaning a drop of over 325 points BEFORE LAST RUN
c) so last run would be 2875 to 3777 (really hard to nail down, it's 3750-3850)
d) so that run would be +900
e) then we get to the 1350 point drop which ....
f) WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NAVIGATE
g) with anywhere from 3 to 5 declining tops before bulls "give up the ghost"
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2/21, 11:42 PM, ET, New York time, notes:
1) I have really good reasons why 2415-2425 is the floor of that check down
2) but there is big problem
3) those same reason say THIS NEEDS TO HIT IN SEPTEMBER 20 TO NOVEMBER 20 WINOW
4) kind of even saying it should hit before OCTOBER 15
5) so favoring 09/20/25 to 10/15/25 to hit 2415-2425
6) this means that cannot be a top above 3405, and all we can prove is 3370
7) this also means that the first incoming top is 2975 or topped already
8) and the next retrace of 150 points is the entry
9) basically 2800 for 3400
10) but trend maps is not saying that yet
Catatan
2/22, 7:51 AM ET, I FINALLY HAVE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT THE TOP FOR YEAR 2031 IS...
A) a number higher than 17000
B) and is probably 25000, this from several sources
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C) as a historical primer for my followers:
1) I started out my finance career as a VIX trader
2) to speculate bearish sentiment for the S&P 500
3) I quickly learned that over the long term....
4) gold and the S&P 500 moved THE SAME DIRECTION
5) at times with exact mirroring ratios
6) that is to say, in the long game ...
7) global stocks go up and gold goes up
8) after education of the gold standard vs fiat currency
9) it became obvious that gold HAD TO go up over the long run
10) and the reason is not what the economists day
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11) typo, say not day...
12) that is to say it is not because of a failure of governance
13) but arguably bc of the nature of the human/social condition
14) that once we have a government "by the people and for the people"
15) who will protect "the people" from the "their own failures" to budget ...
16) total revenue vs expenses (taxes and and discretionary expenses)???
17) this at the federal level which failure results in currency reevaluation
18) it's an unescacapable dilemma that fixes itself
19) along the way also "temporarily resetting prices for EVERYTHING OVERALL"
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20) I will add notes on the several ways we arrive at a 26,500 number
21) I am the the third source I know that arrived at a 20k-30k number in the future
22) but only here, and only my technical indicators can tell you THE YEAR
23) and my call is end of year 2031
Catatan
24) let's just say Q1, 2032 to be safeCatatan
2/22, 10:28 AM ET, I wrote 10 hours ago:
>>> 1) I have really good reasons why 2415-2425 is the floor of that check down
>>> 2) but there is big problem
>>> 3) those same reason say THIS NEEDS TO HIT IN SEPTEMBER 20 TO NOVEMBER 20 WINDOW
and so on...
THIS WAS A BAD READING OF THE DATA, A CORRECT READING WOULD BE:
Catatan
1) first, the window to hit under 2415 is closing quickly
2) it's going to close by November
3) hold on, let's get a sharp date
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4) it's going to close by October if it's late
5) if it's on time it's going to be June
6) that's saying by June, we would have really hard data
7) on what the "final entry for 25k in 6 years looks like"
8) that's 10x your money with no duration costs
Catatan
9) that's all that's really saying
10) no data can be gained for incoming price action
11) so previous notes on yellow vs blue route still base case
12) with blue being base case for the immediate future
13) I do think, that before May, yellow will be base case
14) but the first move for 3075 for yellow route is tough to see now
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15) so if you are updated with the news, they are calling Citibank's forecast a "soft call for 3400"
16) while B of A is calling for "a hard 3500"
17) in chart above is what a 3500 scenario would look like
18) starting with:
a) first moving for 3025-3030
b) check down to and instantly bought at 2790
c) then 3500 then 2222 OR LESS, something like 21xx
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19) ultimately all of these scenarios are the same over the very long run
20) it is basically a sharp move TO OR PAST 3370, then correcting by 1000-1350 points
22) scenario above would fall through 45-year trend line
23) doesn't really matter, we are going to have four-five more rallies and move for 25000
24) the one give away to which version of this move happens is the next 30-60 days
25) basically:
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