2300-2450 WALK THROUGH FOMC REACTION PART 3

Looks like we missed the bottom.
>>2535 on 6/20!!

1) next good entry is Wednesday 2324-27
2) red route has 5/20 2535 target
3) and 7/4 2690+ target

Komentar:

8:15, This is incredibly tough to call like you don't believe.
a) bc none of my models had the bottom on 6/2-6/3
b) this is only knowable through fair value analysis
c) which I decided to do figure out what is needed to a "top already in at 2450" situation
d) and the reverse had to be true
e) that means bottom in at 2315
f) there's no "middle ground here"

Komentar:

8:30 PM ET:

Komentar:

a) I've seen waves failed at 125%, meaning past due AND TURNING.. but fail
b) this is turning at 38%
c) what does that mean?
d) this means that I making this call NOT ON OVERALL TREND
e) but base on my math that IF IT DOESN'T MOVE NOW ...
f) then the top is already in FOR MONTHS
g) so it has to no choice but to move now...
h) so watch the retrace after 2377 for your entry

Komentar:

8:47 NOTES ON WED'S RETRACE AFTER 2377
a) 2343-44 is obvious first target in reading 2-way vol
b) it should not have problem hitting 2331 but that's not obvious
c) as this is "the first move after a new low" so it should retrace most of it
d) with that in mind the floor after 2377 is 2324
e) but that is unlikely to hit

Komentar:

6/3, 9:00 PM 2350.XX
a) the ABSOLUTE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR...
b) is a double bottom at 2315
c) but it takes a very specific route to that price again
d) and it would only be available for an hour or 2
e) so be aware

Komentar:

f) my call for the low is 2328 right near midnight Wednesday

Komentar:

9:20, I can't see it hitting 77 and checking 28
g) continuing from previous notes
h) so for a 26-28 low
i) the Tuesday night high need 65-ish cap

Komentar:

j) so this allows for a check to 37:

Komentar:

k) HOWEVER, the problem with 37 check here
l) it's too weak for this area and we can't confirm it still Wed morning

Komentar:

10:04, I know now for sure it's not black route
a) that means in all scenarios ...
b) Wednesday is low
c) the difference is, is it AM or PM

Komentar:

d) and right now, red is beating yellow as an outcome
e) but the 37-65-28 maybe not be right, maybe 40-70-30...
f) something like that

Komentar:

10:52 PM .. I am right about this. I know it.
a) the issue now is HOW FINE ARE THE DETAILS...
b) so see chart at top?
c) it's going to be IN BETWEEN RED AND YELLOW before NFP
d) but CLOSER TO RED REST OF WAY
e) but RED ROUTE HI-LIGHT SOMEWHAT TOO AGGRESSIVE
f) but how much exactly won't matter
g) you just gotta grab the WEDNESDAY CHECK DOWN
h) IT MAY BE A STICK SAVE
i) meaning at the bottom you would have 2-4 hours to buy and it would reverse up

Komentar:

j) and that 5/20 2535-2540 is legit!

Komentar:

Komentar:

7) it is my opinion that once you get going
8) it's not smart to trade in and out of these rally'
9) bc you are programmed to think "correction" coming
10) so it's best to to hold to 6/20 for first leg
11) bc it's almost 400 from 2315- 2695 (380), the in-between correction
12) gotta be at least 70 or 80, right?
13) we will cross that bridge on 6/20

Komentar:

14) I won't be adding continuous notes
15) but I will at least signal correction over and buy your second leg to 2695
16) this goes w/o saying but
17) just bc the target for 6/20 is 2535-2540 '
18) does n't mean you should hold for that, 2525 is fine exit

Komentar:

19) the last 10-15 points is not worth the zig-zag that can be 30

Komentar:

AND HERE'S PART 4: