2150 BY 03/08 DRAFT 7
INTRODUCTION - From previous notes in DRAFT 6, we are here now. IF BOLD LINE BREAKS EARLY, then DRAFT 5 may complete tonight. I find that hard to believe, but DRAFT 5 route HAS NOT been eliminated. Otherwise, the favorite move is check down now to 2096 and/or 2088 (tonight or tomorrow) followed by CLOSING FRIDAY 2200. But if price breaks that bold line, then I have to believe that DRAFT 5 is favorite until it is disproven. Replay DRAFT 5 to see why:
DETAILS - Links to previous 5 drafts are below. Will add more to this as we go.
IN CHART AT TOP:
1) right now, blue route is favorite
2) but if gray route plays out
3) then rest of week will look more or less like this:
DETAILS - Links to previous 5 drafts are below. Will add more to this as we go.
IN CHART AT TOP:
1) right now, blue route is favorite
2) but if gray route plays out
3) then rest of week will look more or less like this:
Catatan
7:02 PM -- THE BASICS YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER FROM HERE TO 04/061) if you've followed me for sometime, I'M 200% DEAD SERIOUS ABOUT THE NEXT 31 DAYS
2) I've been waiting for 7 years and working on this (gold only) for 8 years
3) I know what I am talking about
3) if they are good at what they do, they HAVE TO SE 2450 ALREADY
4) the question is by 04/08 (which is a Monday), is it 2450, 2550, or may 2650?
5) THERE ARE SEVERAL SCENARIOS HOW WE GET TO FOMC
a) sideways or sideways to down
b) sideways to up
c) reverse heads and shoulders
d) or 2200 by this Friday AND THE SIDEWAYS TO DOWN - because it's from so high
6) the favorite right now is D, 2200 this Friday
7) NONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS involve a number under 2083
Catatan
8) so right this second, we are on blue route chart at top 9) if this plays then we go to 2200 after that, then
10) if THIS BREAKS, then DRAFT 5 completes, we go on from there
11) both of these situations involve 2170 before this week is over
12) we solve this first
Catatan
10:33 PM, do or die for DRAFT 5.a) link below
b) it seems like blue route in chart at top is too slow
c) on my end, it's still favorite
d) after DRAFT 5 gives, up (if it does), there's still the matter of next trend line
e) that needs to break before 96 can happen
Catatan
f) oh yeah, I mean this one here:Catatan
11:41 PM, 2125.66 and weak break of that linea) so DRAFT 5?
b) no, we can eliminate DRAFT 5
c) we can eliminate DRAFT 7 (this draft you are reading), too
d) I have nothing right now
e) will post something as soon as I see it
f) but I can't take 2200 off the table for Friday yet
Catatan
Catatan
03/05, 12:07 AM ET... if that support line which points to 2188 end of Friday is broken: 1) forget shorting ok
2) forget 2096 blah blah
3) break that line, get through 2120, then will talk ...
4) other wise just keep looking up
Catatan
5) in DRAFT 5 before I posted DRAFT 6a) I posted this:
Catatan
Catatan
b) that was the first time that saw 2200 on Friday c) say what you want, THAT'S MY BASE CASE
Catatan
d) but in the problem was the math showed a HIGH on Tuesday e) so I posted DRAFT 6 saying 2200 for Tuesday
f) and realized a couple hours later that was WAY TOO FAST
g) so I settled on 2137 for Friday
h) I woke up today saw 2130s and a topping signal
I) so logical move would be 2096 then 2200
m) so now we disproved 2096
Catatan
n) with that disproof 2 things CAN HAPPENCatatan
Catatan
o) for chart above: see that box? that represents THE 2 POSSIBLE FLOORS RIGHT NOWp) gray route (underdog) is if support breaks tomorrow
q) and checks to 2110-2117 something in there
r) then support becomes resistance
s) so we check up twice and get to 2190-ish END OF FRIDAY
Catatan
t) blue is current favorite until disproven1) first that's a rough look don't go by that hi-light
2) it's just an example of where we are heading
3) HAS NOT BEEN DETAILED ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM, just direction only
4) so blue route means 2122 was the floor
5) SO WE MOVE FOR 2225 END OF DAY ON FRIDAY
Catatan
u) that's all I got nowv) will publish DRAFT 8 first thing tomorrow
Catatan
Catatan
w) in chart above, that's the 16 hour detailing of both moves x) I gotta sleep, good night
Catatan
y) here's next 2 binaries and overall oddsCatatan
z) for chart above:1) we are at first arrow pointing left
2) price needs a decision here
3) over 2125 dark blue is favorite
4) under 2123 gray dark gray is favorite
5) if you do get dark gray, 2110 is a pretty strong floor
6) we won't get a decision on grays until tomorrow around this time
7) so blues over grays
8) medium gray over light gray
Catatan
9) and should we get light gray tomorrow night10) then we deal with this chart in notes from DRAFT 6:
Catatan
11) link to previous drafts below hereCatatan
Catatan
LAST ONE TONIGHT:Catatan
a) big zigzags b) with 2 big check downs
c) roughly around 3/12 and 3/18
d) first arrow is 2130
e) second arrow is about 2160
Catatan
a) so 2-min bar vs 2 blues from last night
b) on track for now
Catatan
c) keep this in mind thoughd) so 2345 target by end of Friday 03/22 is a HARD TARGET
e) in fact, next series I start will be "2345 BY 03/22"
Catatan
REMEMBER MY IRL AND IMA MIX 10-DAY TEST??? REPLAY THIS:
Catatan
a) for chart above: not terrible!b) for intermediate target of which now is 2345 by 03/22
c) there are number of ways to "get there"
d) EVEN A MOVE TO 2083 FIRST!!
e) keep that in mind, ok?
f) bc had it hit chart above for the "mirror" image section
g) that would've been PERFECT HIT
h) NO WAY IN HELL THAT IS CONSISTENTLY POSSIBLE
i) does that make sense?
j) so keep in mind 2345 for 03/22
k) I'm not going to get it ALL PERFECT
l) but I promise you with 7 years of researching GOLD AND ONLY GOLD
m) I will nail this 2345 target on time
n) in between thought, PRICE IS FACT, we go where it takes us
Catatan
o) but consider this for chart above's "10-DAY TEST)p) replay it
q) and ask yourself this:
r) DID THE ROUTE I CHOSE MAKE MORE SENSE??
s) or the route price ultimately took?
t) the route I chose WAS MORE STATISTICALLY LIKELY (does that make sense?)
u) but price can wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait
v) and then get to the target on time
w) it can test your conviction, no doubt
Catatan
x) so yeah KEEP AN OPEN MIND FOR SHORT TERM (that's always a good thing)y) but eyes on 2345 for 03/22
Catatan
z) for now though, I am busy AF, so here's to end of this Friday:1) until this line break, THAT TREND HOLDS and it's aiming for 2188
2) if it breaks, I'll post something
3) if it doesn't break, I won't post anything bc I'm working on
4) 2345 route
5) there's only 12 trading days to 03/22
6) so gotta get on it
Catatan
1:05 PM 2146.XX and we are here now:Catatan
a) chart nice is the two scenarios right now to finish this weekCatatan
b) blue is favoritec) 2200-2225
d) but watch out for gray
e) if gray play out, it moves for 2110 (and then we will figure out the rest)
f) until then base case to FOMC is 2225+ 2 big zig zags
g) so that means on 3/20 we are 2200-ish and finish 3/22 2345
Catatan
1:17 next top 2157-2163 a) if 63 hits...
b) that makes odds of 22xx really high
Catatan
c) if it goes nuts after 63, it would be 75 and then obvious rug pullCatatan
d) so every target higher hit this week would raise the floor after 22xx's check downe) right now 2110 is hard floor
f) if we hit 2160s, floor moves to 2120s
g) and eventually all the way to 2140
h) so after 22xx, check down should be 2140-ish
I) 2151.xx as I type, and thats a wrap for me today
Catatan
m) if you play chart at top, you would be like, "this guy sucks"n) and you would be wrong
o) funny how that works
Catatan
1:56 WEAK TOP SIGNAL ... AND ROUTE CHANGE SIGNALa) so becareful
b) and wait for next draft
Catatan
c) 52 is weird top, it's confusing ...d) so now sideways to up .. but big size
Catatan
3/6, 2:22 PM ET, 2141.XX obviously top in now1) so let me show you the few important lines first
2) and I tell you something NO ONE is expecting
Catatan
3) here's the lines:Catatan
a) like discussed earlier, it's going to break that first lineb) and go for the bold line
c) PROBABLY bounced off the bold line first, maybe one more high at 57?
d) I don't know
e) what we do know is...
1) top line is now SOFT CEILING (ceiling until it breaks next week)
2) if and when bold black line breaks
3) NEW SUPPORT IS RED LINE
4) the third support after bold line will break too
5) while price remains over red line staircasing
6) so for example
Catatan
7) hold on... it's still not obvious8) but here:
Catatan
SCRAP THAT, WE WILL STRAIGHT TO 2335 BY 03/18/24 1) it's just really hard to see
2) but I see it
3) so WE ARE NOT going to break those trend lines yet
4) we need 2170-ish first
5) and then something will break
Catatan
3:32 PM - THIS SERIES HAS ENDED & HERE IS 2325 IN 7 OR 8 TRADING DAYS
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