Analysis of the latest gold trading strategy:

30 Jan

Thursday (January 30) Gold European session, After the Fed announced its interest rate decision on Wednesday, the price of gold fell to $2,744.65/ounce, but recovered most of the losses after Chairman Powell's speech, and finally closed at $2,759.73/ounce, a drop of 0.13%.

The US dollar index and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose briefly after the interest rate decision, then fell back and remained close to flat, closing at 107.95 and 4.530% respectively. Powell said he hoped to see further progress in inflation. It is worth noting that the world's largest gold ETF SPDR has recently rebounded in the past two days after its holdings fell to a six-month low, increasing by 4.02 tons to 865.34 tons on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Policy and Market Expectations
Federal Reserve officials unanimously decided to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, and did not provide a clear timetable for rate cuts. The latest policy statement deleted the wording of slowing inflation, indicating that the Fed is still watching inflation and employment data, as well as the uncertainty of Trump's policies.

The market's expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted:

The probability of a rate cut before June has dropped to 40% (previously about 50%).
The probability of a rate cut in June is 73.4%, which is still the time point that the market is most concerned about.
The expectation of a rate cut before the end of the year has dropped to 44 basis points (lower than the previous 48 basis points), and the market's confidence in two rate cuts this year has declined.
Investors are worried that Trump's tariff policy may increase inflationary pressure, thereby delaying the pace of rate cuts. Future key data include the fourth quarter GDP and initial jobless claims in the United States (released today), as well as the December PCE price index (released on Friday), which may affect the Fed's policy decisions and market trends.

At present, the strength of gold bulls is still sufficient, but the resistance of the upper 2778-2780 range cannot be ignored. At the same time, the lower 2766-2761 area has built a solid support line. For U.S. trading operations, a team of professional gold analysts recommends that investors mainly adopt a rebound short-selling strategy, supplemented by a low-level long-selling strategy. While enjoying the joy brought by the rise in gold prices, we must also be wary of the risk of callbacks brought by the upper resistance, make reasonable layouts, and operate steadily in order to move forward steadily in the gold market.

US market operation strategy 1: It is recommended to short sell near the rebound 2780, stop loss 2787, and the target is 2766-2760.

31 Jan

Trade aktif

January 31st latest gold trading analysis

Overview of gold prices
In the early Asian session on Friday (January 31), spot gold fluctuated narrowly at a high level, hitting a record high of $2,799.46/oz during the session,. On Thursday, gold prices rose 1.25% to close at $2,794.24/oz, a record high, mainly driven by US trade policies and risk aversion demand.

Key factors affecting gold prices

1. US tariff policy triggers risk aversion
Earlier this week, the White House announced that US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on Mexico and Canada and is considering tariffs on China. The news has increased market uncertainty, boosted risk aversion, and boosted gold prices.
In addition, market concerns that Trump may impose tariffs on gold itself have caused New York COMEX gold inventories to surge to 926 tons since the US election in November 2024, the highest level since August 2022.

2. Poor performance of US economic data
GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2024, but domestic demand remained strong, which may prompt the Fed to maintain a slow path of interest rate cuts.
The core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose 2.5% in the fourth quarter (previous value 2.2%), indicating that inflation has picked up.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to a six-year low, reducing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold and enhancing the attractiveness of gold.
The decline in imports led to a narrowing of the trade deficit and a reduction in corporate inventories, indicating that consumers bought goods in advance due to tariff expectations.

3. Fed policy stance
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Chairman Powell said he would not rush to cut interest rates again, but warned that there were risks in the US labor market.
Market expectations of interest rate cuts:
Federal funds rate futures show that interest rates may be cut in June, and there may be two interest rate cuts (25 basis points each) before the end of the year.
Pay attention to the PCE data to be released soon:
It is expected that the PCE price index will rise by 0.3% month-on-month in December, and the core PCE will rise by 0.2% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 2.8%.

Market focus
1. Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech on the US economy and banking industry today, and investors need to pay close attention to his remarks.
2. The PCE data will be released soon, and the market will use it to find clues to the future policy direction of the Fed.

Summary
The gold market has been affected by multiple factors such as US trade policy, economic data, and Fed policy recently, and the gold price has continued to hit record highs. Rising risk aversion, weak U.S. economic data, and the Federal Reserve's possible interest rate cut path have all provided gold with rising momentum. The future trend of gold still depends on the Fed's policy adjustments, the global economic situation, and Trump's trade decisions. Investors need to continue to pay attention to relevant developments.

The defensive rising channel of the gold 4-hour chart with 2730-2745 as the step-down low point remains good. At present, the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at the 4-hour level is still the critical point for short-term bulls. In this kind of unilateral market, the retracement above the middle track is regarded as a bull correction, and it is a strong correction. Combined with the previous high point of 2785, it is converted into a support point. If the market fluctuates and washes, it is not ruled out that it will go to around 2774, and it can be long if it touches. Look at the upper side first, around 2800, and if it breaks, it can be shorted if it touches 2810. The strong resistance during the day is above 2820, and it can still be shorted if there is an opportunity. On the whole, gold climbed to a new high today! Be careful of a high fall today! In terms of today's short-term operation ideas for gold, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends that callbacks are mainly long, and rebounds are supplemented by shorting. The upper short-term focus is on the 2805-2810 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2780-2775 line of support.

Today's gold short-term trading operation strategy of the professional and experienced gold analyst team:
Operation strategy: When the price falls back to 2778-2780 for the first time, try to go long with a light position, stop loss at 2772, and target at 2790-2800-2810

31 Jan

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Gold market analysis and operation suggestions
I. News analysis
During the U.S. market on Friday (January 31), spot gold prices fluctuated and rose at a high level, once refreshing the historical high of $2,817.13/ounce. Gold prices rose 1.25% on Thursday, closing at $2,794.24/ounce, a record high. Here are the main factors driving gold prices higher:

Hedging demand heats up:
Earlier this week, the White House said that U.S. President Trump planned to impose high tariffs on Mexico, Canada and major Asian countries. This news triggered risk aversion in the market and pushed gold prices higher.

Economic data is weak:
U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data performed poorly and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a six-year low, further enhancing gold's appeal.

Federal Reserve policy trends:
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Chairman Powell said he would not rush to cut interest rates again, but at the same time emphasized some warning signs in the U.S. labor market. The market is waiting for an important inflation report to find clues to the Fed's future policy path.

2. Technical Analysis
Daily Level:
Gold fluctuated in a small range in the early trading yesterday, and did not fall below 2657. It broke through and went up in the European session, and rushed to around 2798 in the evening. The daily line finally closed positive, opening a new long channel.
Both the daily and weekly lines show that the trend of breaking high continues to strengthen. Short-term operations should be based on unilateral long ideas. It is recommended to be mainly low-long during the day, but be alert to the risk of market decline.
Support level: 2785 (top and bottom conversion), 2790; 4 Hour Level:
Gold maintains a good ascending channel with 2730-2745 as the second low point, and the middle track of Bollinger Band is the short-term bull critical point.
A retracement above the middle track is regarded as a bull correction, and it is a strong correction. The high point of 2785 has been converted into a support level. If the market fluctuates and washes, it may retrace to around 2774, and it can still be long if it touches.
Upper target: After breaking through 2810, look at 2820, and short when it hits; Strong resistance: above 2820.

III. 3. Operation suggestions
The general idea: the callback is mainly long, and the rebound is supplementary.
Upper resistance: 2825-2830
Lower support: 2795-2790

Specific trading strategies:
Trading strategy 1 Long on pullbacks: Long on the first pullback to 2795, stop loss 2785, target 2805-2815.

Trading strategy 2 Short on rebounds: Short on 2825, stop loss 2832, target 2810-2795.

IV. Summary
Gold hit a record high driven by risk aversion demand and weak economic data, and the technical side shows a strong bullish trend. In terms of operation, it is recommended to mainly go long on pullbacks, while paying attention to the rebound shorting opportunities at the upper resistance level. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics, especially the Fed's policy clues and inflation reports, to flexibly adjust trading strategies.