Current session offers no Short-term conclusions

11 Mar 2022

Gold's general commentary: Excellent Selling opportunity throughout yesterday's session was obstructed due to Lavrov’s ceasefire talks and hinting that both sides may reach an temporary agreement, spiking Gold upwards invalidating #2,000.80 barrier Intra-day. Fundamental news once again prevented further collapse, while Investors await issue of the new Inflation status, which is evident on Hourly 1 chart’s Bullish Divergence (possible stagnation ahead of the announcement). Important note: when you fully confirm the underlying trend on Gold, if it is a Bullish - always Buy the dips and take every chance as Long opportunity, if the trend is Bearish, use every opportunity to Sell every High / Spike which Gold makes, but lately Gold is Trading under violent Volatility where it is difficult to foresee Intra-day trend. Another rejection so far on #2,003.80 - #2,006.80 Resistance cluster, after one of the many failed break attempts since early March. If another attempt fails, Gold may Target #1,917.80 Higher Low's extension.


Fundamental analysis: Very slow pace Rectangle Trading on the Hourly 4 chart, as current configuration is a typical sign that the market is consolidating, waiting for a catalyst to reveal an direction. Same with the DX (Intra-day). I assume that following the Monthly fractal, the market is waiting for Monday’s session to see how Wall Street will digest current developments and ceasefire talks aftermath. Fundamentally, the risk-off sentiment that DX had these past few weeks should fade away after current result as Investors will remove capital from safe-haven assets such as Gold and can go back to Bond Yields with confidence (making Gold lose with every Hourly candle). Meaning that if Gold loses value, Bond Yields should benefit along with the DX on Lower extension, which can continue Selling sequence on Gold. Any pullback to the #1,952.80 psychological barrier and possible Price-action rejection is a Buying opportunity, above #2,007.80, I expect last week's late Buyers to yield and push the Price-action towards #2,021.80.


Technical analysis: It is Highly important to note that Gold always repeats it’s cycles and allow me share the configuration which was evident on the charts: On November #11 - #12 variance, Gold dipped throughout E.U. session towards the #1,856.80 and as market closing approached, Bought back the dip and closed the market session near #1,884.80. On November #16 (cycle fractal), market sentiment delivered almost the same movement, decline towards #1,864.80, and tomorrow’s session market closing near Weekly High priced at #1,895.80 (again similar scenario). Throughout yesterday’s session, E.U. opening was Trading in Bearish fashion but as Wall Street opening Bell approached, Price-action soared on an aggressive spike towards #2,007.80 (on the Lavrov’s speech aftermath), and Sold back just within few Hours towards #1,985.80 again (currently Price-action is Trading above) so - according to Daily cycles, every dip towards the Support was Bought back, and if Gold experiences aggressive push towards the Support and Price-action rejects it, I don’t see why Gold won’t repeat this kind of sentiment and follow the statistic rules, where Gold may continue the recovery candles all the way towards ATH’s peak if #1,974.80 rejects the Price-action.


My position: My yesterday's session Selling order was invalidated with a #9 point Stop-loss hit, as discussed, excellent Selling opportunity was reversed due ceasefire talks (Lavrov's speech) and as current session offers me no Short-term opportunities, I will take an early weekend brake, satisfied with what's done for current January - March cycle (#19 Profits row and #3 Stop-loss hits). If Gold continues the Selling sequence and invalidate #1,974.80 configuration, I will pursue #1,952.80 barrier and #1,927.80 in extension with my set of Selling orders. However, #2,007.80 re-test restores Bullish Short-term trend.