Gold update 23.05
Diupdate
Let's start with the daily routine, step by step.
Macroeconomics
This week's market driver is the US debt ceiling issue. This should push gold higher, but it is still falling.
Market Sentiment
"But gold saw little safe haven demand over the past week, with prices tumbling sharply below the $2,000 level as a string of hawkish comments from Fed officials saw markets positioning for potentially more interest rate hikes by the central bank."
"Gold is expected to benefit from increased safe haven demand later this year, especially as U.S. economic conditions worsen. Markets are also positioning for a pause in the Fed’s rate hike cycle by June, which could invite more support for the yellow metal."
"Signs of a slowing economic rebound in China battered the red metal, as markets positioned for a weaker-than-expected recovery in demand this year. China is the world’s largest importer of copper. "
"So for that reason, I think we're going to have to grind higher with the policy rate in order to put enough downward pressure on inflation to return inflation to target in a timely manner," he said.
Hawkish commentary seems to be putting some downward pressure on gold.
Future markets
Markets are clearly bearish (see the image on the main screen).
Correlated markets
Bearish outlook on GDX
Yields are going up, which is another confirmation for bearish Gold.
For now Silver is respecting the bearish channel.
Top-Down and Technical Analysis
Weekly appears very bearish. Most likely target the liquidity trend line below. I expect a more serious reaction from the market zone.
Gold cleared the previous double bottom liquidity and reacted on Friday. Unfortunately, the reaction was less than I expected.
Manipulation area at the origin of the trend line. Price may react to it.
Final thoughts are that gold will form another bearish day, considering all factors and the big fall in Asia. We trade what we see, right now the market is very bearish, of course if gold form strong bullish manipulation I may change my daily bias.
Macroeconomics
This week's market driver is the US debt ceiling issue. This should push gold higher, but it is still falling.
Market Sentiment
"But gold saw little safe haven demand over the past week, with prices tumbling sharply below the $2,000 level as a string of hawkish comments from Fed officials saw markets positioning for potentially more interest rate hikes by the central bank."
"Gold is expected to benefit from increased safe haven demand later this year, especially as U.S. economic conditions worsen. Markets are also positioning for a pause in the Fed’s rate hike cycle by June, which could invite more support for the yellow metal."
"Signs of a slowing economic rebound in China battered the red metal, as markets positioned for a weaker-than-expected recovery in demand this year. China is the world’s largest importer of copper. "
"So for that reason, I think we're going to have to grind higher with the policy rate in order to put enough downward pressure on inflation to return inflation to target in a timely manner," he said.
Hawkish commentary seems to be putting some downward pressure on gold.
Future markets
Markets are clearly bearish (see the image on the main screen).
Correlated markets
Bearish outlook on GDX
Yields are going up, which is another confirmation for bearish Gold.
For now Silver is respecting the bearish channel.
Top-Down and Technical Analysis
Weekly appears very bearish. Most likely target the liquidity trend line below. I expect a more serious reaction from the market zone.
Gold cleared the previous double bottom liquidity and reacted on Friday. Unfortunately, the reaction was less than I expected.
Manipulation area at the origin of the trend line. Price may react to it.
Final thoughts are that gold will form another bearish day, considering all factors and the big fall in Asia. We trade what we see, right now the market is very bearish, of course if gold form strong bullish manipulation I may change my daily bias.
Catatan
The 30min manipulation invalidated today's bearish bias.
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