2300-2450 WALK THROUGH FOMC REACTION PART 5

The odds of "top in" at 2450 on May 20 is rising. Still a dog, but rising.

So the "turn" pretty much goes like this. The issue is WHERE PRICE IS AT RIGHT BEFORE NFP. There are two circles. It is counter-intuitive if you have bad intuition. If it's low in the bold oval, the NFP reaction should break out. If it is high in the skinny circle, NFP reaction may be stall and follow dotted line to 6/20 2440 high making a triple top. In which case, expect sideways to down for several months.

In my humbled opinion, yellow is the out right favorite but not an impressive favorite. So make that what you will. I will see this time time tomorrow AFTER ADP reaction. 2300 is the entry, but it may not hit until tomorrow night.

Komentar:

6/4, Waited for months and the moment of truth is almost here.
1) the next HOW WE KNOW moment ...
2) is NFP reaction of which there are two
3) the first is a double spike from what looks like 2318
4) to 2353, then 2370-2375
5) the other reaction is stalling at 50-55 and dropping into next week
6) that's all there is to it

Komentar:

7) for the record, this version of the rally has higher 2-way vol
8) with the retrace at 2540 looking like 90 pts
9) which means there should be 2 more of 70-size retraces AFTER THAT
10) beforre 2665 7/4 top

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12:46, FOR THE RECORD ON LEVERAGE
a) I am not comfortable with leverage for this route
b) not until AFTER NFP, like here:

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12:50, This part here is most important now:

Komentar:

1) last draft I said "this is unreal that this wave is turning at 38%"
2) you just don't see that ever...
3) so it DIDN'T TURN.. that's ok
4) now we need it to turn
5) when it turns is the Thursday move from 2300-2345
6) BUT IT'S NOT READY
7) so price MUST STALL TO BUY TIME
8) for it to reach 93%
9) meaning if price moves down FASTER PAST THAT BOX
10) THIS IS A DEAL BREAKER RIGHT NOW
11) so be aware...
12 ) will show post this wave again before Wed night low

Komentar:

13) in that context, would prefer this:

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14) why? bc I get a stronger guarantee of a "complete wave turn"
15) this has to do with the order of all trends smaller than that wave
16) ALL OF THEM have to get in order...
17) if they it's a strong signal for 2450 by 6/14 ...
18) if they are not, it's not strong signal

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1:44 PM 29.xx, last note on perfect wave turns:

Komentar:

1) these parts on this scale is always MESSY
2) full of random zigzags
3) so so the left side is an IMPERFECT wave turn
4) I didn't trust it at all, AND IT GOT TO 2450 anyway
5) same scale here would 2475, but higher wave adjustments would ..
6) knock that down to 2435
7) note that turn-to-top length of box is almost same
8) so it would fall on 6/20-21
9) BUT
10) give me a perfect wave
11) this "guarantees" the orange wave WILL ALSO TURN
12) this is what will give you 2535 on 5/20

Komentar:

13) see the two way vol on the left?
14) that's a lot...
15) bc the wave is imperfect ...
16) translation: MOST PEOPLE IN THAT TIME FRAME ARE BUYING ... BUT SOME ARE SELLING
17) if the wave is perfect: PRETTY MUCH ALL PEOPLE IN THAT TIME FRAME IS BUYING
18) hence, you get higher prices AND LESS 2/WAY VOL

Komentar:

6:59 PM 2327.xx HOW A MOVE HAPPEN IS EVERYTHING
a) the trends are determined by price
b) so to get a perfect setup, price needs to behave in a very specific way
c) first this next part is what price is doing right now ANY WAY
d) but if I take the "perfect trend setup and "reverse engineer for price"...
e) here is PART 6 which is the same as this draft you are reading
f) but SUPER SUPER DETAILED
g) from now to FIRST FOMC REACTION ON 6/12 :

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8:04 PM ET: THE LINK DID NOT WORK, WILL FIX:

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8:22 PM, CHART ABOVE IS LINK TO PART 6.

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If it does not work, use related ideas links below.