GOLD → CPI and FED. What to expect from the market?

12 Jun

XAUUSD is stopping after correction, traders are afraid to make premature decisions as news is ahead. A consolidation below 2315 is forming.



False break of support leads the price to retest 2310-2315, after which traders take a breather before the news.
All eyes remain on the upcoming big events, CPI and Fed. Key US CPI data will help shape the Fed's view on interest rates, which will significantly impact the value of the US dollar and gold prices in the near term. The market is expecting neutral (no change) data, which could generally keep the same fundamental backdrop. But, all eyes are on the actual data as the market is still confused by last Friday's higher NFP than expected.
Nevertheless, any initial reaction to the US CPI data may be temporary as gold traders will quickly switch to the FOMC & FED meeting.

Resistance levels: 2315, 2325, 2354
Support levels: 2305, 2291, 2267

Technically and fundamentally, gold is weak at the moment. On the background of high volatility, the price may try to break through 2325 and test the liquidity area of 2335-2345, then move to the decline phase, if the fundamental background is suitable for this. Risks of further decline are quite high, but the coming news can both strengthen this decline and break the market structure.

Regards R. Linda!

12 Jun

Catatan

A few comments:
- The situation is complicated by the fact that there are too many factors influencing the overall situation lately
- news is not released at the same time, but sequentially, so traders can change their positions as the data comes in.

- Another rather interesting situation:

US Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen and John Hickenlooper) sent a letter to the Fed demanding to lower the interest rate.
It is highly probable that Powell will not react in any way, as he is more concerned with the inflation situation, but still, the very fact of active influence on the policy...

12 Jun

Catatan

The news is favorable for gold
A retest of 2340 is forming

12 Jun

Catatan

False break of 2340 resistance and correction ahead of FOMC & FED meeting

12 Jun

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Target 1 (2340) reached!

13 Jun

Catatan

After reaching the first target (2340) a false breakdown is formed, which is the reason for further decline
Consolidation below 2315 is formed.