Gold market dynamics on February 4

4 Feb

Market overview:

Spot gold price: In the early Asian session on Tuesday (February 4), the spot gold price fluctuated in a narrow range.

Monday trend: Gold prices fell first and then rose on Monday, affected by the announcement by US President Trump to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, and the market's concerns about the impact of inflation on economic growth intensified. The US dollar index once rose by more than 1%, causing the gold price to fall to around 2772, but then supported by safe-haven buying and bargain hunting, the gold price rebounded to US2830.39/ounce, and finally closed at US2814.38/ounce.

Influencing factors:

Trump tariff policy: Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which intensified market concerns that the trade war may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth and trigger rising inflation.

Fed rate cut expectations: After the tariff news was announced, the market lowered its expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, and futures prices showed that the probability of two rate cuts this year was only 50%.

Global economic impact: Analysts believe that once tariffs are implemented, the economies of Canada and Mexico will face the risk of recession, and the eurozone economy may also stagnate further.

EU response: EU leaders said that if the United States imposes tariffs, Europe will be prepared to fight back, but also called for rationality and negotiation.

Technical analysis:

Yesterday's trend: Gold technically suppressed first and then rose. After the opening of the Asian session, the price of gold fell under pressure at the 2805 mark. After accelerating downward to the 2772 mark in the European session, it rebounded. The price of gold accelerated to rise to around 2830 in the US session and fell under pressure, and finally closed at around 2813.

Today's strategy: Today's support below focuses on the 2800 integer mark. If it stabilizes at this position during the day, it can continue to be bullish. The upper short-term resistance focuses on the 2828-30 mark. If it first touches the 2830 mark, it can be shorted once and then look at the shock decline. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 2790 mark. Before the daily level falls below this position, the main long pattern will continue to remain unchanged.

Summary:

Short-term strategy: Today, the upper pressure is 2830, and it can be shorted and then fluctuated and fell. The overall support is 2800-2830. Keep the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple cycles.

Medium-term outlook: Although the strengthening of the US dollar usually has a suppressive effect on the gold market, the price of gold has been rising due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs that has driven the demand for safe havens. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the spread of the bear market in the stock market may drag down gold in the short term, but the destructive tariffs continue to fuel the medium-term bull market of gold.

Risk warning:

Federal Reserve warning: Several Federal Reserve officials warned that the large-scale tariffs currently being implemented by the Trump administration will bring inflation risks, but they did not explain how this will affect their views on monetary policy in an obviously uncertain environment.

Operational suggestions:

Long strategy: After the intraday retracement to the 2800 mark, you can go long, stop loss 2794 and target near 2828-30.

Short strategy: You can go short when the 2830 mark is touched for the first time, stop loss 2835 and target near 2800.

Note:

Market volatility: Due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, market volatility may intensify. Investors need to operate with caution and control risks.

4 Feb

Trade aktif

Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: On Tuesday (February 4), spot gold continued to rise strongly and broke new highs in the U.S. market, and the current price is $2,844/ounce. Gold prices fell first and then rose on Monday, and the U.S. dollar index maintained its intraday rebound trend and is currently around 108.80. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar puts pressure on gold prices. As the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, gold prices have fallen from their historical highs. From the technical perspective of gold, gold prices have turned overbought on the daily chart, which makes gold buyers vigilant. U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, which intensified market concerns that inflation will affect economic growth. On Monday, the U.S. dollar index rose by more than 1%, causing gold prices to fall to around 2,772, but gold prices were soon supported by safe-haven buying and bargain hunting. In addition, as Trump announced the postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the U.S. dollar index gave up its gains, providing gold prices with another opportunity to rise. On Monday, gold prices reached a high of $2,830.39/ounce and closed at $1,814.38/ounce. Although a stronger dollar usually has a dampening effect on the gold market, gold prices have been rising as uncertainty over Trump's tariffs has driven safe-haven demand. Although Trump has suspended a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, this has heightened concerns that the trade war could slow global economic growth and trigger rising inflation.

Gold technical analysis: Gold has risen under the stimulus of safe-haven demand, but the sustainability is not strong. Gold has risen and fallen back. There is still a lot of resistance above. Gold is under pressure at 2850 or continue to be short. Gold 2830 may suppress gold's rise in the short term. Moreover, after a continuous rise, gold is already in an overbought state and may adjust significantly at any time. Even if you go long, you need to be cautious. Gold is now under pressure at a high level. Although the bulls seem strong, you have to pay attention to the gold bulls. If they take profits and flee, then the gold bears will have the opportunity to fall sharply at any time. Overall, our professional gold analyst team recommends that the upper short-term focus is on the 2855-2860 resistance line, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2830-2825 support line.

Gold operation strategy:

1. When gold reaches 2855-2860 for the first time, short it, stop loss at 2865, target 2830-2835 line; if it breaks, look at 2817-2820 line

5 Feb

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Analysis of gold trend on February 5
On Wednesday (February 5) in the early Asian session, the spot gold price rose rapidly in the short term, reaching $2,862/ounce, setting a record high. The rally was mainly driven by risk aversion triggered by U.S. President Trump's tariff policy, which has significantly increased market demand for gold.

Market background:
Increased risk aversion demand: Trump's tariff policy has triggered global trade tensions, especially China's retaliatory tariff measures against the United States, which has further exacerbated market uncertainty. Investors have turned to safe-haven assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices.

The decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields: US job vacancies in December hit the largest drop in 14 months, dragging down the US dollar and US Treasury yields, further providing momentum for gold prices to rise.

Impact of economic data: The market will focus on data such as the US ADP employment in January, the December trade account, the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI in January, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in January. If these data perform poorly, it may further push up gold prices.

Fundamental analysis:
Although gold prices faced multiple negative pressures last week, such as the Fed meeting reiterated that inflation was high and the labor market was strong, gold prices did not fall back, but continued to strengthen. The main reasons include:

Expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened: Although Fed officials are cautious about interest rate cuts, the market still expects that interest rates may be cut in the future, which provides support for gold prices.

Inflation pressure: High inflation has not led to interest rate hikes, but has increased the commodity price of gold, further driving up gold prices.

Economic uncertainty: Economic concerns and potential trade conflicts brought about by Trump's policies have increased market uncertainty, pushed up inflation expectations, and further boosted gold's safe-haven demand.

Technical analysis:
Gold prices have now broken through the key resistance level of $2,853. If they can remain above this level, gold prices are expected to rise further, with the target pointing to the $3,000 mark. The overall market expectations are negative for gold prices, but if economic data performs poorly, gold prices may continue to rise.

Despite some negative factors, such as weakening expectations of interest rate cuts, high inflation and a strong labor market, these factors have not put substantial pressure on gold prices. On the contrary, market concerns about economic uncertainty and trade conflicts have driven the safe-haven demand for gold. Therefore, gold prices are expected to continue to rise in 2025 and hit the $3,000 mark.

Investors need to pay close attention to the upcoming US economic data, which will have an important impact on the short-term trend of gold prices.

Yesterday, gold fell slightly in volatile trading and stabilized at the 2807 mark, ushering in a strong bottoming out and rebounding to break the high continuously. The European session gold price further broke through the morning high of 2824 and continued to rise above 2830 to continue to rise strongly. The US session gold price accelerated to break through the 2845 line and fell back to close strongly. The daily K-line closed strongly and broke through the high-middle Yang. The overall gold price continued the extremely strong unilateral rise of the bulls relying on the support of the 5-day moving average.

The 4-hour chart shows a one-sided step channel rising. Combined with the middle track of the Bollinger Band as the critical point for bulls, this week's bulls are consolidating and correcting, and the space for stepping back is relatively limited. The previous retracement low of 2772 has been far away, and the second lowest point is at the starting position of 2806. The second lowest point coincides with the support position of the middle track at 2810, which is a short-term bull defense point. It is currently in a unilateral pull-up. Today's Asian session is expected to rise by inertia, and the European and American sessions will rise again after consolidation and correction. Today's lower support continues to focus on yesterday's hourly neckline near 2833. If it stabilizes at this position during the day, it can continue to be bullish. The upper short-term resistance focuses on the 2865 mark, and the short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 2825-2830 line. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, continue to keep the low-level long rhythm unchanged.

Gold operation strategy:

1. If gold falls back to the 2825-2830 line, go long, and if it falls back to the 2810-2812 line, cover the position and go long. Stop loss at 2803, and target the 2848-2850 line; continue to hold if the position is broken!