2325-2450 WALK THROUGH TO FOMC REACTION PART 4
We are about to catch fire. This is the route, I think I know it.
Question marks:
1) first one means I am not sure what this part should look like
2) is it sideways
3) or sideways to up?
4) in strong rallies, it produces a counter intuitive reaction
5) if it is "sideways to A BIT down" with quad top look
6) then the reaction is explosive spikes to the ceiling
7) but if it is sideways to up, then it's just regular move up
8) and then slope curves
9) that's what the three question marks mean
Question marks:
1) first one means I am not sure what this part should look like
2) is it sideways
3) or sideways to up?
4) in strong rallies, it produces a counter intuitive reaction
5) if it is "sideways to A BIT down" with quad top look
6) then the reaction is explosive spikes to the ceiling
7) but if it is sideways to up, then it's just regular move up
8) and then slope curves
9) that's what the three question marks mean
Komentar:
7) you not gonna make money day trading ok?
8) you can, BUT NOT LIKE YOU THOUGHT it would be
9) in the beginning
10) the only time you can do it...
11) is with HIGH LEVERAGE
12) IN A BIG RALLY
13) INSIDE A BIGGER RALLY
14) that's the only the time that 2-way vol IS LIMITED
15) THIS. IS. THAT. TIME.
8) you can, BUT NOT LIKE YOU THOUGHT it would be
9) in the beginning
10) the only time you can do it...
11) is with HIGH LEVERAGE
12) IN A BIG RALLY
13) INSIDE A BIGGER RALLY
14) that's the only the time that 2-way vol IS LIMITED
15) THIS. IS. THAT. TIME.
Komentar:
Komentar:
16) look at this:
Komentar:
a) this? ...
b) not even half the math:
b) not even half the math:
Komentar:
Komentar:
c) this the "opposing angle" or opposite ratio of trends
d) vs the first map
e) AND THEY BOTH HAVE TO AGREE
f) and they are saying that..
h) if gold wants a new high before October
i) it has to MOVE NOW
j) but the it's second map that says
k) first move to 2368-ish has to get rug pulled
l) deal breaker is 2323 BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME
m) will get into that on Wednesday
d) vs the first map
e) AND THEY BOTH HAVE TO AGREE
f) and they are saying that..
h) if gold wants a new high before October
i) it has to MOVE NOW
j) but the it's second map that says
k) first move to 2368-ish has to get rug pulled
l) deal breaker is 2323 BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME
m) will get into that on Wednesday
Komentar:
Komentar:
a) right now fair value (for 12 days) ...
b) is a rally to 2430s and then move to 2200
c) if price wants to change outcome
d) it's gotta be 2365-2370 Tuesday night-Wed morning high
e) this "delays that check-down to a higher floor"
g) and sets up the swing to 2390s by end of Friday's NFP
b) is a rally to 2430s and then move to 2200
c) if price wants to change outcome
d) it's gotta be 2365-2370 Tuesday night-Wed morning high
e) this "delays that check-down to a higher floor"
g) and sets up the swing to 2390s by end of Friday's NFP
Komentar:
@ Fomomania, NO - NOT A TYPO
1) the 'short term to medium term" picture only
2) is a slow transition to FOMC
3) 2300 (maybe 2282)
4) and then rally to 2430 by 6/20
5) and then top in, 2200 by 7/04
6) THIS IS THE "12 DAY TRADING PICTURE AT A TIME" ONLY
1) the 'short term to medium term" picture only
2) is a slow transition to FOMC
3) 2300 (maybe 2282)
4) and then rally to 2430 by 6/20
5) and then top in, 2200 by 7/04
6) THIS IS THE "12 DAY TRADING PICTURE AT A TIME" ONLY
Komentar:
8:09 AM... so this is a problem...
1) we are moving for 2300
2) and that is a problem because if at this stage
3) that implies a sideways to to FOMC
4) and a ceiling developing at 2430
5) for a triple top
1) we are moving for 2300
2) and that is a problem because if at this stage
3) that implies a sideways to to FOMC
4) and a ceiling developing at 2430
5) for a triple top
Komentar:
Komentar:
6) continuing with chart above
7) this play out like 12-day fair value
7) this play out like 12-day fair value
Komentar:
8) which means THIS (from PART 2)
Komentar:
9) 12-day fair value ONLY CONSIDER 12 trading days AT A TIME
10) it performs well, in the sense that that it recognizes danger in medium - longer term forecasts
11) does not mean that long gold bull is dead
12) it only means that you have to prepare for a top in scenario for months
10) it performs well, in the sense that that it recognizes danger in medium - longer term forecasts
11) does not mean that long gold bull is dead
12) it only means that you have to prepare for a top in scenario for months
Komentar:
8:38 AM -- for long term people
a) 2300 is your entry tomorrow
b) but be aware
c) if we are slow to 6/20, like black route
d) that is an "unknown risk" for 6 month picture
e) bc it IMPLIES the possibility of NO NEW HIGH UNTIL MID OCTOBER
a) 2300 is your entry tomorrow
b) but be aware
c) if we are slow to 6/20, like black route
d) that is an "unknown risk" for 6 month picture
e) bc it IMPLIES the possibility of NO NEW HIGH UNTIL MID OCTOBER
Komentar:
9:01 AM
1) I just posted a chart from last Thurs/Friday from TG
2) this is the only remaining "new high in July" scenario
3) this is supported by everything longer than 3 weeks
4) but everything under 15 trading days DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY
5) so the choices remaining are
a) that route
b) or black route in chart above
1) I just posted a chart from last Thurs/Friday from TG
2) this is the only remaining "new high in July" scenario
3) this is supported by everything longer than 3 weeks
4) but everything under 15 trading days DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY
5) so the choices remaining are
a) that route
b) or black route in chart above
Komentar:
6) the only true differences between them where THE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT is...
7) is WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER AFTER 6/13
8) that's NEXT THURSDAY'S PPI
9) so is 2430 a triple top on Friday 6/14?
10) or can you move to 2515 on Thursday 6/20
11) that's not knowable at this time
12) because on Monday 6/17, that marks the the 4 week fair value at 2440
13) this matters bc the forward picture for the top expires 7/4
14) that's 2.5 weeks out
15) meaning on an intermediate 6 week basis
16) it is a triple top at 2430-2440, and we move for 2200 after that
7) is WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER AFTER 6/13
8) that's NEXT THURSDAY'S PPI
9) so is 2430 a triple top on Friday 6/14?
10) or can you move to 2515 on Thursday 6/20
11) that's not knowable at this time
12) because on Monday 6/17, that marks the the 4 week fair value at 2440
13) this matters bc the forward picture for the top expires 7/4
14) that's 2.5 weeks out
15) meaning on an intermediate 6 week basis
16) it is a triple top at 2430-2440, and we move for 2200 after that
Komentar:
9:54 AM, BEFORE I POST DRAFT 5:
Komentar:
a) red is this draft
b) black is what happens if short-medium term trends win
c) yellow is only possibility left for "escape momentum"
d) meaning it slower than this....
e) and 5/20 is is 2440 triple top
f) then move to 2200, sideways to October and November
g) I talked about this prior to to hitting 2350 the first time
h) noting what should happen if there's failure to take out ...
i) the 44-year trend line
j) which is SIDEWAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION
k) so there's that
b) black is what happens if short-medium term trends win
c) yellow is only possibility left for "escape momentum"
d) meaning it slower than this....
e) and 5/20 is is 2440 triple top
f) then move to 2200, sideways to October and November
g) I talked about this prior to to hitting 2350 the first time
h) noting what should happen if there's failure to take out ...
i) the 44-year trend line
j) which is SIDEWAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION
k) so there's that
Komentar:
@contactabbas1,
1) we will know WELL AHEAD OF FOMC
2) by the "lead-in move"
3) if it's weak then yes 2430s is triple top
4) but it's not over
5) statistically overall, odds still favor new high 2:1
1) we will know WELL AHEAD OF FOMC
2) by the "lead-in move"
3) if it's weak then yes 2430s is triple top
4) but it's not over
5) statistically overall, odds still favor new high 2:1
Komentar:
@ fomomania, you are correct, I was typing too fast
1) so 5/20 was 2450 top
2) slower than this would be 2440 at 6/20 for a triple top
1) so 5/20 was 2450 top
2) slower than this would be 2440 at 6/20 for a triple top
Komentar:
AND THIS POST IS DONE, THIS IS PART 5:
Ide yang Berhubungan
1) 30 days from the 2690-2700 top
2) I gotta tell you, these big moves don't come often
3) and they ALWAYS COME WITH WAY MORE 2-WAY VOL
4) meaning that you don't move 380 often ...
5) where the biggest retrace can be about 75
6) it just doesn't happen