Gold weekly forecast 17-23.04
Last week the structure became very suspect and, as I thought, gold collapsed. It cleared the position of buyers targeting 2070. Eventually gold will clear these highs but do not expect it to be that easy.
Gold has fallen very aggressively but it has consolidated many times around the 2000 level. It is an important level, so I expect it to bounce back. There is a strong daily manipulation zone at the bottom of the current channel and until gold is above this zone, gold remains bullish for me.
On 4H TF RSI is moving between 60 and 40 which means gold is ranging.
Macroeconomics
Some would say that gold is pricing in the next 25bp rate hike. I think it is more important that the FED has announced a pause in hikes and a mild recession is expected by the end of the year.
If the FED pauses or even cuts interest rates, yields will no longer be such an attractive investment. Gold has proven to be a "safe haven" asset, which is why I do not think gold will collapse in the longer term.
Top-Down Analysis
The weekly candle closed as a bearish doji, meaning that the bullish movement is temporarily paused. To call a reversal, the doji must be confirmed.
On the daily timeframe, gold appears to be moving very broadly higher. Nothing unusual yet.
Benchmark
Gold's bearish move is confirmed, but for now it looks like a pullback.
COT Reports
Professional traders are also slightly bearish. We may see further declines.
Yields
Yields are rising, confirming further declines.
XAUUSD vs GDX
Just as I thought last week, GDX could react from this high. It formed a double top, which means that the reaction will most likely be temporary.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is moving in a very tight bullish channel, as long as the price is within this channel, silver is bullish. The weekly candle is also bullish.
Volume Spread Analysis
The daily candle is confirmed by volume. Nothing unusual. The good thing is that volatility is on the rise, which means we can catch some good moves.
Retail Support and Resistance
Markets moves around their averages. Every time gold moved more than 7% away from the main moving average, it returned to it. It may return after clearing the 2070 level or now. Be cautious.
Momentum
The momentum is still bullish, but gold is trading at the top of the band. This is something we need to watch.
RSI is still bullish.
Gold has fallen very aggressively but it has consolidated many times around the 2000 level. It is an important level, so I expect it to bounce back. There is a strong daily manipulation zone at the bottom of the current channel and until gold is above this zone, gold remains bullish for me.
On 4H TF RSI is moving between 60 and 40 which means gold is ranging.
Macroeconomics
Some would say that gold is pricing in the next 25bp rate hike. I think it is more important that the FED has announced a pause in hikes and a mild recession is expected by the end of the year.
If the FED pauses or even cuts interest rates, yields will no longer be such an attractive investment. Gold has proven to be a "safe haven" asset, which is why I do not think gold will collapse in the longer term.
Top-Down Analysis
The weekly candle closed as a bearish doji, meaning that the bullish movement is temporarily paused. To call a reversal, the doji must be confirmed.
On the daily timeframe, gold appears to be moving very broadly higher. Nothing unusual yet.
Benchmark
Gold's bearish move is confirmed, but for now it looks like a pullback.
COT Reports
Professional traders are also slightly bearish. We may see further declines.
Yields
Yields are rising, confirming further declines.
XAUUSD vs GDX
Just as I thought last week, GDX could react from this high. It formed a double top, which means that the reaction will most likely be temporary.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is moving in a very tight bullish channel, as long as the price is within this channel, silver is bullish. The weekly candle is also bullish.
Volume Spread Analysis
The daily candle is confirmed by volume. Nothing unusual. The good thing is that volatility is on the rise, which means we can catch some good moves.
Retail Support and Resistance
Markets moves around their averages. Every time gold moved more than 7% away from the main moving average, it returned to it. It may return after clearing the 2070 level or now. Be cautious.
Momentum
The momentum is still bullish, but gold is trading at the top of the band. This is something we need to watch.
RSI is still bullish.
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