Emas / Dollar A.S.Diupdate MQP PRESENTS JULY FOMC INTERMEDIATE INFLECTION POINT
HEADER - This is regressions say are the two most likely paths for the next 2 weeks.
SUMMARY - Yesterday, I posted notes prior to PPI release (in previous forecast linked below) of what the incoming price action should look like. This is to clarify that now that we have a bit more information.
DETAILS - See previous posts for details.
NOTES 1 - Will add some after pulishing.
SUMMARY - Yesterday, I posted notes prior to PPI release (in previous forecast linked below) of what the incoming price action should look like. This is to clarify that now that we have a bit more information.
DETAILS - See previous posts for details.
NOTES 1 - Will add some after pulishing.
Catatan
NOTES 2 - 10:35 AM ET FRIDAY 7/14a) so in previous draft I stated that we would "drift to 8:00 AM ET" and "plunge straight down NFP style"
b) we hit 1950 and it doesn't look like it will hold
c) I called for 1920 today
d) while that's still possible, there's only 6 hours to go
e) for the purposes of this draft, it doesn't matter if it gets hit today or Sunday, or even Monday
f) just that it continues down trend and "stick with the blue boxes" if it intends to go bear (which is what I think will happen)
g) if it "stick with the orange boxes", it's setting up for explosive straight up move after JULY FOMC (26th)?
Catatan
h) continuing...i) from what I can see, the July spike is the last route for bulls to top around 4000 in 2-3 years
j) there's one more route to 2500-3000, that bull route spikes in January 2024
k) that much is what i think I know
l) so in my mind, the fundamental picture does not say that we get furious straight up pike in late July and early August
m) that would imply that the Fed will stop with this "2 more hikes" narrative and "stop for this cycle"
n) based on what I'm hearing from people who follow that stuff..
o) that's not in the cards
Catatan
p) so I think the incoming two weeks will fill out all the blue boxesq) that's really all that is knowable (based on linear regressive forecasting)
r) in the fundamental picture, my position on the dollar for the next 8 years is dollar bull market vs every other currency
s) but that doesn't mean that we don't get simultaneous gold bull, it's just very much less likely
t) if we do get somehow get a simultaneous gold bull, it needs to let us know...
u) THIS JULY or
w) JANUARY 2024
x) that's all I think I know
y) eliminate unnecessary risks, protect yourself, and...
z) have a good week
Catatan
MONDAY JULY 17TH 10:14 PM ET1) so tomorrow is new moon
2) price action has stayed in the first red box
3) odds are beginning to favor bull route meaningfully
4) I titled this post JULY FOMC INTERMEDIATE INFLECTION POINT
5) that I mean for 7/26 and later
6) FOR TOMORROW SPECIFICALLY, we have the inflection point's inflection point
7) trend is saying minor spike up tomorrow above 1970
8) if true, odd begin to heavily favor continuous vertical spike for 7/26 and later
9) will post more if there is something worth posting about
Catatan
10) hold on a minute ...11) I ran regressions several times again
12) result for tomorrow is inconclusive
13) actually leans bearish
14) BUT 72-DAY AND 18-DAY REGRESSIONS ARE WAY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
15) EVEN FOR BULLISH SCENARIO
16) barring massive bear day tomorrow, this is begging to really favor bulls
17) that's it, good night
Catatan
TUESDAY JULY 18, 8:01 AM ET1) despite inconclusive bearish micro trends,
2) price nevertheless hit 1972 this morning
3) just a while ago and is now 1963, following red boxes
4) what does that mean for us here?
5) that means that:
A) base case is now extremely bullish price action for 7/26 to 8/16
B) so JULY FOMC TO MID AUGUST
C) with one caveat or exception
D) and that is price action "staircase" up strongly the next 8 days
E) so both binary outcomes are now bullish
Catatan
STILL TUESDAY 11:04 AM ET, 1983.xxF) continuing...
G) I didn't foresee that "caveat or exception" mentioned in "C)" happening IMMEDIATELY
H) not that it was impossible to see, I just wasn't watching all the time to spot it
I) so what does mean now?
J) in "D)" I said "staircase up strongly for next 8 days"
K that would look like this: (give a a minute)
Catatan
Catatan
L) for chart above:M) so statiscally same curve as previous bull boxes way above
N) but the floor prior to 7/26 is 1935, instead of 1895-1900
O) can it spike up one more time?
P) while anything can happen, I have to watch every couple of hours to answer definitively
Q) it is still my humble opinion that it retraces prior to 7/26
M) god knows I've been so wrong many times, so take it FWIW
Catatan
MONDAY JULY 18, 1PM ET, ABOUT PRICE ACTION 10 DAYS INTO FOMC1) several years ago, I did a statistical analysis of price 10 days before FOMC
2) I can't find it anymore
3) but a major reason why I think this (1978.xx now) will begin to drop hard late this Wed
4) or this Thursday
5) is that my memory says that gold is generally has a minor top...al
6) from Tues to Thurs in the prior week BEFORE FOMC
7) meaning next 3 days
Catatan
8) continuing...9) I remember that this pattern was true in both bull and bear markets
10) I just don't trust my memory to say that confidently
11) I'm going to look at this again and will definitely post more on it if I have time
Catatan
MONDAY 7/18 1:55 PM ET QUICK BASE CASE UPDATES 1) here is 1 hour bar:
Catatan
2) here is 8 hour bar wide view:Catatan
3) 1 month to show both 2011 and 2020 tops:Catatan
4) 1 month wide view to show the first 1930's Roosevelt gold revaluation in 1933 vs 2011 top:Catatan
5) here is back to 30 min bar:Catatan
a) for chart above:b) so I did those charts so you can see where the trend lines came from
c) and while we do need a new published draft
d) this chart needs quite a bit of clean up and wave reconciliation
e) wave reconciliation is when I make sure that the ratios agree would what the price action should be
f) there are two hilights
g) the first short one is from 9/8 ratio
h) the second longer one is from max vol 6/8 ratio
i) if we some how land on 1925 on 7/24 or 7/25 ...
j) this is would be the best r/r I've delivered up to this point bar none
k) do I have any reservations about this forecast (generally speaking)?
l) no I do not and cannot think of one
m) the only scenario that would be supper annoying is a high vol staircase like this:
Catatan
Catatan
n) continuing...o) that scenario is neither probable or even suggestive AT THIS POINT IN TIME
p) so what now?
q) get ready to go long and stay long
r) entry will be 7/25 or 7/26
s) deal breaker if we get this BY THIS FRIDAY and we would know for sure:
Catatan
u) continuing for chart above:
Catatan
w) none of micro, short, medium, intermediate, long term, waves ..x) from ANY ANGLE say that is even remotely suggestive of
y) I put that in the 1% of 1% odds (or 1 in 10000)
z) this is it until I have something finished to post for next draft
Catatan
July 18th, still Monday, 3:36 PM. 1) this post has ended
2) here is the latest, and likely all you need until 08/01/23, 14 days out
3) I present you, trade of the summer:
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