Gold update FOMC meeting 22.03.22
My speculation for today is bullish.
If FED increase the rates with 50pbs gold will drop, otherwise it will go up
Macroeconomics
Today Gold will be probably very volatile because of uncertainty.
In my opinion FED are going to increase the IR with 25pbs as it is already forecasted.
More important to analyse how FED will handle the monetary policy in future and if J.P is hawkish or dovish on the conference. The projections will be very good indicator for the conference.
FED have to increase the rates, because of the high inflation and also not so aggressively, because of the banks´ crisis.
Since FED announced that they are going to slow down with the rates few months ago, banks are buying Gold. They knew that the higher interest rates will lead to Banks´ crisis.
What changed since then? - Nothing
FED are continuing to increase the rates slowly and also will bail out the banks with new fresh money.
If you are investor where you will put your Money? You will buy Gold, knowing that prices are going up and Gold will last forever or will buy bonds, when the banks fails?
Few weeks ago, when CPI came out, the reading was bearish for Gold, but it did not move. This showing us, that banks have another plans.
Top-Down Analysis
Price just negated monthly bearish manipulation.
The weak is bearish for now, but price is supported by previous manipulation.
Price just closed the imbalance from last week. Potential buy setup.
Not in our zone, but price formed low liquidity bullish move. On my broker Gold negated bearish HCS.
Price took the liquidity and reversed. If you analyse the consolidation, you will see that the natural momentum is bullish.
Yields vs Gold
In my opinion Yields are ready to go down.
Silver vs Gold
Silver moved exactly as I predicted - in bullish channel. Also the current SMT divergence is showing bullish momentum.
GDX
Not so clear, but it seems bullish
T. Bills
The bills went down. Normally they are very good indicator for the rates.
FOMC
If FED increase the rates with 50pbs gold will drop, otherwise it will go up
Macroeconomics
Today Gold will be probably very volatile because of uncertainty.
In my opinion FED are going to increase the IR with 25pbs as it is already forecasted.
More important to analyse how FED will handle the monetary policy in future and if J.P is hawkish or dovish on the conference. The projections will be very good indicator for the conference.
FED have to increase the rates, because of the high inflation and also not so aggressively, because of the banks´ crisis.
Since FED announced that they are going to slow down with the rates few months ago, banks are buying Gold. They knew that the higher interest rates will lead to Banks´ crisis.
What changed since then? - Nothing
FED are continuing to increase the rates slowly and also will bail out the banks with new fresh money.
If you are investor where you will put your Money? You will buy Gold, knowing that prices are going up and Gold will last forever or will buy bonds, when the banks fails?
Few weeks ago, when CPI came out, the reading was bearish for Gold, but it did not move. This showing us, that banks have another plans.
Top-Down Analysis
Price just negated monthly bearish manipulation.
The weak is bearish for now, but price is supported by previous manipulation.
Price just closed the imbalance from last week. Potential buy setup.
Not in our zone, but price formed low liquidity bullish move. On my broker Gold negated bearish HCS.
Price took the liquidity and reversed. If you analyse the consolidation, you will see that the natural momentum is bullish.
Yields vs Gold
In my opinion Yields are ready to go down.
Silver vs Gold
Silver moved exactly as I predicted - in bullish channel. Also the current SMT divergence is showing bullish momentum.
GDX
Not so clear, but it seems bullish
T. Bills
The bills went down. Normally they are very good indicator for the rates.
FOMC
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