Trade Recap - XAGUSD

1 Jan 2022

Review the trade I've taken on XAGUSD

My trading style is a combination from all of these methods:

• Top down analysis
  
• Chart pattern analysis
  
• Supply & demand
  

Let's start with the analysis which I did on 30 Dec 2021.

Monthly

• Bullish flag pattern is formed. With this pattern, there's potential price to break the flag and impulsive to the upside.
  
• Currently on Monthly low in a corrective phase. Monthly low indicate that probability price could go more to upside than downside.
  
• Historical price also show that on this region, price tend to go impulse to upside.
  
• I would target the price to reach the beginning of correction (beginning of flag).
  

Weekly

• Price hasn't break previous bearish structure. The probability for price to go up only for short term and then to the downside again is there. I should aware of the scenario where Bullish W pattern could play-out.
  
• Current price is on Weekly low. Never buy on weekly low because historically the price tend to go upside.
  
• There is double bottom pattern that indicate currently on resistance.
  
• Bullish candle already appear, indicate that the bull is there. So lower potential to catch the falling knife.
  
• The conclusion is there's more probability going to upside than to the downside.
  

Daily

• Bullish M pattern with consecutive bearish candle on the 4th leg. This pattern indicate the bullish momentum.
  
• Clear trend-line (white). Historically price respect the trend-line, so there's probability that it still will respect the trend-line.
  
• Bullish candle appear showing that the bull is there. So lower potential to catch the falling knife.
  
• I draw fibonacci from 3rd leg of Bullish M pattern and will find Supply & Demand zone below 61.8. Also use -27 as Daily target profit.
  
• Clear Supply & Demand zone (white). S&D is a zone that could act as both resistance & support. On this zone I will wait for the entry confirmation on 4H timeframe.
  

4H

• Bullish M pattern with false break on fib completion -68. This pattern inside the bigger timeframe pattern indicate that it align with the bigger timeframe trend, which is uptrend.
  
• Inverse H&S could play-out. This is my confirmation for entry position. I will wait on Supply & Demand zone (grey)
  
• I wait for deceleration and bullish indication before place my entry to minimize the risk.
  
• Place my Stop Loss on the lowest wick that on my S&D zone.
  
• Will increase my position along the way if the price go according my analysis.
  

Current price
1 Jan 2022