VIX Volatility approaching a peak. Bottom sign for stocks?

16 Apr

Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high:

It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since has been around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, completing at least a +80.56% rise from the Lower Low.

This zone currently falls between 20.05 (Fib 0.786) and 21.30 (+80.56%). That is the level we expect for VIX to peak, form a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and a Higher High on the short-term Bullish Megaphone and then start a 2-3 month decline (Bearish Leg).

The previous two Bearish Legs have been fairly symmetrical (-61.52% to -63.56%) so technically we are looking at a 9.00 minimum Lower Low (-61.52%). Our Target is however slightly higher at 10.10, in case each Lower Low is formed on a decreasing rate.

Once VIX peaks and gets rejected downwards again, we will have a legitimate sign that the stock market volatility will start to ease and a bottom will be formed.

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