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Everyone Believes What They Want to Believe
Diupdate
Realty != Belief
The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually.
Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup.
Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop.
A wise Bera once said:
Resistance is infinite and unbounded.
When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up.
Support is not though, support is capped at 0.
The Fed's view:
federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-does-the-beveridge-curve-tell-us-about-the-likelihood-of-a-soft-landing-20220729.html
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?
"It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur."
Lagging Crash
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later.
Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk.
You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG?
The doom loop is accelerating.
Few understand this.
The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually.
Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup.
Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop.
A wise Bera once said:
Resistance is infinite and unbounded.
When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up.
Support is not though, support is capped at 0.
The Fed's view:
federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-does-the-beveridge-curve-tell-us-about-the-likelihood-of-a-soft-landing-20220729.html
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?
"It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur."
Lagging Crash
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later.
Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk.
You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG?
The doom loop is accelerating.
Few understand this.
Catatan
Fed's Bullard cites policy rules, suggesting rates of between 5% and 7%.Anyone hoping for a pivot or even a pause in rate hikes will be disappointed.
Catatan
In reference to the lagging crash, someone also brought up these good facts:Enron went from investment grade to bankruptcy in 4 days.
Lehman announced earnings Sept 08 & was bankrupt in 4 days.
FTX/SBF went from hero to zero in 4 days.
I know many think the same could happen to USD.
How many realize it could also happen to EUR, JPY, GBP, HKD, CNY, etc?
Catatan
Load de "Black Swan Event"... 3-6 weeks.
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