$UVXY above $30, brings $60+

28 Jan

UVXY has two big hurdles it needs to make it over before it can see higher prices.

1. It needs to get over the 200DMA (light blue line)
2. It needs to get over $30

As you can see, price has been consolidating in a channel since the August spike and IMO is almost ready for a big move.

I think this move will likely take place the second half of February and potentially into March.

I'll be looking at buying call options for 3/7 expiration, or 3/21 is even safer.

I think the move is likely to hit the $71 level on the chart, and could potentially go as high as the top resistance (however I don't see that as very likely). To me, most probable target is $78-82 right below the trend line.

Let's see how it plays out.

28 Jan

Catatan

Think it's likely that we test 28-$30 tomorrow pre-fomc, then post FOMC we drop again.

28 Jan

Catatan

Also possible that we just keep falling tomorrow. I have both longs and shorts for any outcome.

29 Jan

Catatan

I think it's less likely now that we see a huge spike. Possible, but not my base case. I think equities will largely be bullish until next week. Then I'll start adding back more UVXY exposure.

2 Feb

Catatan

It's possible that the move on Friday started the move higher and that the move plays out prior to 2/18 instead of after. Let's see.

Still have 130 30C for 2/21 incase that does happen.

2 Feb

Catatan

I don't think it's time for a larger move yet, so if price goes up to $27-29 region tomorrow, I'll likely take profits there on my 2/21 calls, then I want to reposition for March so I have more time on my side.

3 Feb

Catatan

I'm looking for $31.30 or so to sell my options, or SPY at $580, if we don't get it, not selling. Just going to watch price action -- not sure if we get up there today, it would be a large move.

3 Feb

Catatan

Doesn't look like we're going to get it. Think we're going to see a massive short squeeze and vol crush instead. Just going to keep holding -- not time yet.

4 Feb

Catatan

For those frustrated that we haven't moved yet... x.com/benjihyam/status/1886599297866870950

It's coming.

5 Feb

Catatan

Vol crush continuing. I think it can take us down below $17 and the market sees a short squeeze. I'm going to use the low prices over the next days to scale into more vol for 3/21.

7 Feb

Catatan

Added some 30C for 2/28 and 35C for 3/7.

If the market continues higher next week, will continue to add for 3/21

7 Feb

Catatan

We should have a better sense of timing early next week when I get to see how the weekly candle looks and we see if we continue higher or have one more low. So far, the chart looks extremely bullish. Today was a pivot, so it's possible that today was the bottom and that we just move higher from here.

If that's the case, the next pivot is the 24th. I'd expect that to be the top, or the top hits before that on the18th or 19th, or continues higher until expiration (like what happened during covid when the market bottom on March expiration) and that pivot sends price back down.

Still looking for $74-78 target. Again, I'm adding longer term expirations just incase I'm wrong on the timing.

Again, we should know more next week on whether today was the start of the move or not.

10 Feb

Catatan

Weekly Heikin Ashi is red to start the week. Would need to make it over 20 to change that. Therefore not convinced on a bullish move until over that level.

11 Feb

Catatan

If we get a bullish reaction in the markets post CPI tomorrow, I think it's likely to mark the bottom of UVXY. I'm looking for $17.50 or so.

Will update tomorrow based on what I see, but I think if that happens, the move starts afterwards.

12 Feb

Catatan

Welp hot CPI print and so far it's looking like a bearish reaction. That could've changed things. Above 20 in UVXY this week will change the structure of the chart and make it more likely that we start a larger move.

12 Feb

Catatan

I added more 30C calls for 3/7 and 3/21 and some 23C for 2/21

12 Feb

Catatan

Pretty convinced today was the bottom.

Now we need to see over $20.50 to flip the weekly candle from bearish to bullish.

Then over $30, if we can close over $30, then we'll likely see continuation towards the targets in the $70+ range.

12 Feb

Catatan

Just bought a ton more for 3/7 on this dip. I'm probably done buying. Loaded up with calls now from 2/21-3/21.

13 Feb

Catatan

Welp obviously yesterday wasn't the bottom. Next pivot is Wednesday. I bought some calls in NVDA to hedge against the calls in UVXY incase the market keeps going up here.

Added more UVXY today too.

13 Feb

Catatan

$17.52 is next support, then $17.07

18 Feb

Catatan

As of now, I don't see a spike coming this week. I think the market likely continues up this week and we start falling next week into 3/7. So vol should move during that time period. I've been adding for 3/7 and 3/21

19 Feb

Catatan

Alright yesterday we tapped the support I was looking for. Today we turned up. Low timeframes are starting to look more bullish on Ichimoku, let's see what happens over the next few days here. Need to break above 20, then 30 and a close above 30 likely means more upside.

19 Feb

Catatan

At 11AM PT, 2PM ET we have the fed minutes getting released, that could bring in some volatility.

20 Feb

Catatan

Welp broke support. Next level down is around $17.

20 Feb

Catatan

Welp now we got a flip up. As long as price can continue holding $17.52, we can see a change in direction. Today was a key pivot day, so will want to see how price action shapes up the rest of the day

20 Feb

Catatan

We're getting close to a major breakout. Again, as long as we hold 17.52, price should move higher by next Wednesday 2/26.

We're about to break a massive triangle structure that goes back to the December breakout. I've been watching the USDJPY as I think that's likely the trigger.

In the short term, I could see a bounce back above 150, but if we see another waterfall that takes us below 148 or so, it'll likely take down the market.

I continue to accumulate here for 3/7, 3/14 and 3/21. Getting frustrating that we're not seeing any major movement when I can feel that we're very close to a move but will remain patient.

My guess is that when we do break, the move will be very large as we've been consolidating for a long time and price has been held down for so long.

21 Feb

Catatan

Price flip up this morning off support and first green daily heikin ashi candle. We're seeing USDJPY sell off more this morning and it looks like it has a lot of room to move down. I don't think we see a large move until over the weekend/Monday though.

Below $148.80 on USDJPY or so, the market should start to take notice. Below 604 in SPY and I think we see more selling volume come in.

No one sees any risks at the moment being that every selloff has been bought up. This one looks different in structure and seeing selling across a lot of assets now.

Let's see how the rest of the day shapes up.

Would love to see a close over $18. Next big resistance is $20.

Need a close over both of those areas to start a larger move.

21 Feb

Catatan

There goes 604. Vol starting to react.

21 Feb

Catatan

Alright seeing everything I want to see. The top for UVXY and bottom for the market should come on March 3-4

5 hari yang lalu

Catatan

Everything is looking good to me for the thesis posted before to play out. Price is consolidating right below $20. Remember, that's a key level. If we close over it, likely moving higher.

I'm looking to take profits at $46, however as of now, I'm leaning towards the full move taking us to $102-106. Which I still think will play out between now and Tuesday next week (this could change depending on what happens tomorrow and Friday.

I have options for 2/28, 3/7 (majority of them, $35,40C), 3/14, 3/21.

If we hit $46 this week, I'll likely take profits from the 2/28 and leave the rest open. This is really risky but I'm going for maximum gains. And I'll already be very up on the 2/28 options if price hits $46.

That's my plan as of now. However, my plan often changes in the moment based on what I'm seeing. Remember $20, $30 are the key levels to break over, if we can't close above those levels, then we won't see continuation.

4 hari yang lalu

Catatan

Interesting... note the date: x.com/financialjuice/status/1895108497634718050

Let's see if we can get a close over 20 today.

4 hari yang lalu

Catatan

Solid day. Up a ton. Higher.

3 hari yang lalu

Catatan

Still closed above $20. We shall see what happens next week.

Less confidence now, but it's 50/50 in terms of probabilities. Still think we go higher, just not as sure on timing. Would've liked a stronger move today. The earliest date we could top is Tuesday.

Again, the USDJPY will be the tell. Below $178.73 and this move becomes more likely to play out.