USTEC - 2 Day Traders Edge

kemarin

📈Technical:
MARKET BIAS: Neutral (consolidating at HVN pivot, high-rate sensitivity)
PIVOT ZONE: 24,541 (Exact HVN level)

🥇 Traders Edge - Actionable & Tactical

TRADE SETUPS:
🟧 Risk Warning: Core PCE surprise = 200+ point moves
🟧 Special Risk: High beta to rate moves via PCE
↕️ Bias Flip: Break below 24,400 (bearish) | above 24,700 (bullish)

🟢Long Setup:
• Entry above Pivot | Stop 24,450 | TP: 24,650 | 24,750 | 24,850 - Extended Breakout

🔴Short Setup:
• Entry below 24,400| Stop Above Pivot | TP: 24,300 | 24,000 - Extended Breakdown

🎯KEY LEVELS:
• Strong Resistance: 24,700 | 24,784
• Strong Support: 24,400 | 24,300 | 24,100 | 24,000

🎯PRICE TARGETS:
• Bullish Path: 24,700 → 24,784 → 25,000 (Extended breakout)
• Bearish Path: 24,400 → 24,300 → 24,000 (Extended breakdown)

🚨HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS (48H): (NY Time Zone)
• Sep 25 | 08:30 GDP Q2 Final: 3.3% vs -0.5% → Growth supports tech multiples
• Sep 26 | 08:30 Core PCE MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% → TECH RATE SENSITIVITY
• Sep 26 | 08:30 Personal Spending: 0.5% vs 0.5% → Tech demand proxy
• Sep 26 | 10:00 Michigan Sentiment: 55.4 → Growth stock appetite


🛑 MASTER RISK EVENT
🟧Friday September 26 | 08:30 (NY Time Zone)
🟧 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) - Forecast: 0.2% vs Previous: 0.3%
🟧 Critical Impact: Fed's preferred inflation gauge determines rate path and USD strength
• Gold: Collapse risk if hot print
• Equities: Rate repricing volatility
• Sectors: Tech rotation sensitivity

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL
• Reduce position sizes before Friday 08:30 EDT
• USD strength reversals impact Gold heavily
• Tech high beta to rate repricing
• Month-end flows amplify volatility
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Analysis based on Session Volume POC clusters and HVN methodology

4 jam yang lalu

Catatan

📌NASDAQ Trading Plan - Updated parameter calibration from yesterday

Trader’s Edge:
🎯Nasdaq sits on a critical decision point – breakout or rejection here will drive the next directional wave.

USTEC (Nasdaq 100)

Pivot Zone:
24,300 – 24,400

Bias Flip:
Bullish above 24,400 / Bearish below 24,300

Bearish Targets: 24,000 → 23,800 → 23,600
Bullish Targets: 24,600 → 24,800 → 25,200+

Invalidation: Re-entry back into pivot zone negates bias flip