WTI continues to be under pressure, notable data this week

9 Sep

USOIL remains under pressure, after data showed weaker-than-expected US employment data in August, which was mixed with support from OPEC+ oil producers delaying supply increases.

US government data showed job growth in August was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not need to cut interest rates very significant this month.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, less than expected to increase by 160,000. (July's increase was revised down to 89,000, the smallest increase since December 2020).

As for the geopolitical situation, as the Israeli army battles Hamas-led rebels in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, medics said on Saturday that Israel's military assault on Gaza has killed at least at least 61 people in 48 hours.
The warring parties continue to blame each other for the failure of mediators including Qatar, Egypt and the US to broker a ceasefire. The United States is preparing to present a new proposal, but the prospects for a breakthrough appear slim as the differences between the two sides remain wide.
In general, there are still no notable new points regarding the geopolitical situation, so it will have less impact on the market than before.

This week will release OPEC's monthly crude oil market report, EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook report and IEA's monthly crude oil market report, which are the focus of the US oil market. this week and the market will pay special attention to them.

On the daily chart, USOIL still in a downtrend with technical conditions leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease.
First, the long-term technical trend of WTI crude oil will be noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21).

Although WTI crude oil stopped falling after reaching the 1% trend-following Fibonacci extension that readers noticed in the previous issue, this is not a trending support so once WTI crude oil Breaking below the 66.96USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci will condition the price to continue falling. The next target level of WTI crude oil will be noticed at 64.55 – 63.66USD.

As long as WTI crude oil remains in the price channel and below the EMA21, it still has a main bearish trend with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 66.96 – 64.55 – 63.66USD
Resistance: 68.84 – 69.77USD

9 Sep

Catatan

Crude oil prices rebounded on news that a hurricane could hit the US Gulf Coast by mid-week, with the US National Hurricane Center saying yesterday that the weather system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to turn into a hurricane before reaching the northwestern Gulf Coast.

16 Sep

Catatan

16 Sep

Catatan

Oil prices (USOIL) recovered slightly to about 68.34 USD/barrel (+1.08%).

16 Okt

Catatan

The IEA emphasized that the oil market is currently focused on further developments from Israel, especially the possibility of attacks on Iran's key energy infrastructure. Iran's Kharg Island export port, with a capacity to transport 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, mainly to China, is the focus of concern. In addition, the risk of spreading conflict to the strategic Strait of Hormuz also receives special attention.

29 Okt

Catatan

Crude oil prices returned to a weakening trend with the appearance of falling price models. Demand trends from China further reinforce these technical signals as the country's imports are down 350,000 barrels/day this year.