Potential structure leading into OPEC news
An exercise in forecasting, for later reference and improvement. The following is based on a few observations.
Assumptions and biases outlined:
1) Impulse wave will continue past the floor of the previous corrective structure, at 64.20.
2) A corrective structure will form, rising upwards with the final leg of the structure dipping into the previous corrective structure. I've noticed that the corrections seems to extend into the range of the previous structure before they break down again. I've outlined a basic ABC corrective structure, but as we've seen in oil, these structures just as often form into more complex patterns than a simple ABC. I don't fully expect a clean ABC like I've outlined, but the range seems reasonable based on the last structures. I would be very surprised to see oil breaking higher than 65.50 before the big OPEC news.
3) The ABC pattern I've outlined assumes that the crude oil inventories are going to be bullish for oil. A spike with a rapid sell-off. If the crude oil inventories are bearish, this ABC pattern will get messed up quickly! Of course, there is no way to know if it will be bullish or bearish. I'm well-aware that there is a logical fallacy to assume the report will be bullish, just because it will create a pretty ABC. The markets will do what they do, and don't care about making a pretty wave pattern for us. However, because I can't know for certain which way the report will rally, I will assume bullish for the sake of this forecast. Given the looming bearish OPEC news and hedging taking place, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bullish pullback just before June 22nd.
4) OPEC news day on 22nd will be bearish.
Of course, of all of this can be quickly invalidated! This should not be taken as trading advice! It
Assumptions and biases outlined:
1) Impulse wave will continue past the floor of the previous corrective structure, at 64.20.
2) A corrective structure will form, rising upwards with the final leg of the structure dipping into the previous corrective structure. I've noticed that the corrections seems to extend into the range of the previous structure before they break down again. I've outlined a basic ABC corrective structure, but as we've seen in oil, these structures just as often form into more complex patterns than a simple ABC. I don't fully expect a clean ABC like I've outlined, but the range seems reasonable based on the last structures. I would be very surprised to see oil breaking higher than 65.50 before the big OPEC news.
3) The ABC pattern I've outlined assumes that the crude oil inventories are going to be bullish for oil. A spike with a rapid sell-off. If the crude oil inventories are bearish, this ABC pattern will get messed up quickly! Of course, there is no way to know if it will be bullish or bearish. I'm well-aware that there is a logical fallacy to assume the report will be bullish, just because it will create a pretty ABC. The markets will do what they do, and don't care about making a pretty wave pattern for us. However, because I can't know for certain which way the report will rally, I will assume bullish for the sake of this forecast. Given the looming bearish OPEC news and hedging taking place, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bullish pullback just before June 22nd.
4) OPEC news day on 22nd will be bearish.
Of course, of all of this can be quickly invalidated! This should not be taken as trading advice! It
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