Crude oil - rangebreaking

30 Mei

Both Brent and WTI continue to frustrate investors. Last week saw both contracts break below significant support in a move which suggested further weakness to come. But prices reversed sharply and rallied back above resistance yesterday, signalling the likelihood of a breakout through the top of a range which has been building since the beginning of this month. Yet having smashed through resistance, crude reversed direction again, pulling back from Wednesday's month-long high, and dropping back into its rough trading range. What to make of it all? As noted yesterday, this market has form when it comes to wrongfooting traders, and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t continue to be the case. The market has repeatedly shrugged off geopolitical concerns, but remains unsure of the outlook for future demand growth. In this regard, there is considerable uncertainty about the state of China’s economy, and how that will affect crude imports. At the same time, there are worries about how the US economy will perform now that the Federal Reserve has forced the market to dial back its interest rate cut expectations. Add in this weekend’s OPEC/OPEC+ meetings and volatility is perhaps the only thing traders can take to the bank.