Tightening restrictions, Trumps race and two blue lines

6 Okt 2020

The main thing that worries financial markets now is Trump's health. The US President left the hospital, so the treatment is successful (with the use of experimental drugs). But it seems to us that we need to look at least one step ahead. Namely, the presidential race seems increasingly hopeless for Trump. The chances of Trump even without Covid were very low simply because the US economy is in the worst shape over the past decades (if not since the Great Depression), which means that in the eyes of voters, everything is more or less clear with the culprit.

So the impossibility of running an election campaign negates the ghostly chances that Trump had. But the impression is that the financial markets, and especially the US stock market, point-blank refuse to recognize this. In our opinion, this is a good opportunity to earn money. So sales on the US stock market remain relevant. The only chance for the US stock market is new stimulus package. But it is still only a dream and expectation.

What is not a dream is the pandemic situation in the world. The total number of cases in the world has exceeded 35 million. Schools are being closed in New York, bars in France, the UK is preparing for a tough winter.

Anyway, progress does not stand still. In India, a paper test for COVID has reportedly been invented, which makes it possible to determine cheaply (about $ 7) and quickly (less than an hour) whether a person is sick or not with a confidence level of over 95%. Two blue stripes - a person is sick with COVID, one blue - healthy. But again, this does not solve the problem of a pandemic here and now, so reasons for optimism are only on the horizon.

Oil prices jumped yesterday on information about the strike of oil workers in Norway. That is, in the short term, oil production in the country may decrease by 330K barrels per day. In our opinion, yesterday's growth in oil market is an excellent opportunity to sell at better prices and nothing more. The strike in Norway certainly is not a factor that radically changes situation in the oil market.