I don't see yesterday and overnight's "risk-on" rally as the end of the bear market in oil. That said, we need to give respect where it's due:
- Up 17% in 2 sessions
- Buyers finally stepped in, and in a big way, at the 9am NYMEX open yesterday
- No intraday reversal to the downside - this is only the 2nd non-occurence in the last eight trading sessions
- All of this has been confirmed with strong volume
I question whether Draghi will be able to muster sufficient support to expand QE and I don't think Kuroda will want to play competitive devaluation chicken with China. However, as long as central bank easing rumours are flying, "risk on" will be the mentality. Watch for another test of 31.30, and definitely watch the 9am NYMEX open for clues. 32 will be a ceiling to the upside and 38% fib retracement at 30 will be support.
