WTI Crude - Quick Backtest Bounce, then Short.

3 Jan 2017

I've entered a small long here, off the support above $52. This support goes back a long way, look at it on the weekly.

I'm targeting the retest of the pink up channel we just broke, or the blue horizontal channel.

Longer term though, I think oil looks extended, and I don't think supply is set to fall much. So I'd be interested to look for a short position right where this long ends. Looking for a good reversal at those levels on the hourly or 30 min bars to go short.

If taking that short, watch out for $52, as I said, goes back a long way. If broken, $50 shouldn't be far away IMO.

4 Jan 2017

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

Careful now, it's failed to break up, I exited long for a small loss, but may re-enter if seeing bullish candles on 15 or 30 at this level.

4 Jan 2017

Trade aktif

Re-opened long after double bottom, be wary of the 53.50 resistance, it may not make it all the way back to the channel even if the up move continues.

4 Jan 2017

Trade aktif

Working better this time, stop moved up to breakeven (including the earlier loss)

5 Jan 2017

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

HIt 53.50, that's enough for me here on the long side. Closed trade. Now looking closely for reversal and a short trade.

5 Jan 2017

Trade aktif

Short active off 53.50 now. This may be premature, could pop up and reverse higher, but have to head and and can't watch so willing to take risk of stop out rather than miss what i think is a good short entry level. If you can watch it you may wish to trade slightly more cautiously.

7 Jan 2017

Catatan

AS anticipated, the 53.50 entry was premature but did come in for an ok profit in the end. Since then the channel top has been a useful place for short entries.

There's a channel action here in shorting that top blue line and longing 53.50 intraday, which caught most of the volatility on friday.

Remains to be seen if we can expect bigger bear moves as predicted in this chart, but short the top line until its broken, and you may catch a very nice move down.

Breaking the top line isn't instantly bullish, i'd like to see us make it back into the pink channel to feel comfortable the bull trend still has legs.

7 Jan 2017

Catatan

SO if you are bullish and disagree about a move down, look to buy off 53.50 rather than any breakouts up, should make for a more comfortable and profitable position.

9 Jan 2017

Catatan

Working nicely now, some profit locked in, 53.5 has failed. Next levels to watch are bottom of bluw channel around 52.3, but there's a lot of support here. Don't be stubborn if price shows reversal, take your profits, or at least minimise exposure to any bullish reversal.

If Break of 52 is achieved, I think 50 is a good target.

9 Jan 2017

Catatan

OK approaching a lot of support here, I've banked most of the position here, waiting to see how the price reacts at support

9 Jan 2017

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Now scalping long so closing this idea, will develop further setups on a new chart.