The start of a long-term bear?

Oleh wsbza

Diupdate

equality between wave (Y) and (W)

Catatan

possible short-term structure

Catatan

break below 65.21 would send another invitation to bears

Catatan

the decline after flat was in three waves, so the flat could be a wave W instead

Catatan

I came up with a different count

Catatan

I am shifting my previous preferred count to alternative structure

purple count is my preferred structure

Catatan

Since the short-term pattern looks corrective, the July high of $75.25 could be broken again

Catatan

and of course, the bearish count may still work, but whether there is any trading opportunity or not, could be a different story
another push above 71.36 would suggest the triangle case mentioned above
any close below 64.4 could lead to further bearish potential (the potential that $75.25 is a larger degree top)

Catatan

possible bigger picture

Catatan

almost there?

Catatan

wave {A} done?

Catatan

short-term bullish count

wave {iii} has already surpassed the 1.618 extension (at 50.99)

Catatan

the 1.618 extension should be at $51.80

Catatan

short-term bullish count in blue, alter count in grey

Catatan

if wave {v} has ended at $54.3, we should expect a three wave correction which could drag price back to the end of wave {iv} ( note the pink {a}-{b}-{c} could also be just the wave {a} or {w} at the same degree);
if wave {iv} is still unfolding ( e.g. triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)), another modest push above $54.3 is possible although I think it's very less likely to happen.

Catatan

short-term count

Catatan

complex wave 2?

Catatan

the alternative count

Catatan

running triangle for wave (B)?

Catatan

a flat for wave (B)?

Catatan

wave (C) is likely underway
alternatively another zigzag decline to complete wave E of (B)

Catatan

the alternative triangle probably will not happen, here is my short-term guessing so far

Catatan

min target could be at 58.61 where wave (C) = 0.618 wave (A), ideal target is still around $63

Catatan

possible short-term count

Catatan

flat for wave 2?

Catatan

break above wave 1 high of 57.86 could indicate wave 3 of (C) is underway

Catatan

Wave (C) could be an ending diagonal

However, we could still assume (C) is an impulse wave rather than diagonal and count the short-term structure as below

Catatan

Any close below the red wave 1 high at 57.85 would increase the odd for ending diagonal scenario, although you could still argue this is a 1-2-{i}-{ii} bullish structure

Catatan

divergence between RSI & Price

Catatan

triangle wave 4 ?

Catatan

or flat wave 4 followed by wave 5, wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3

Catatan

wave 5 is less likely to move beyond $64.12 ( where wave 5 = wave 3)

Catatan

almost there?

Catatan

An impulsive fall below wave {iv} low at $61.8 would suggest wave {v} of (C) is in place.
Alternatively, any push above $64.06 would argue wave (C) has more bullish potential.

Catatan

if price move above $64.06, I would consider label red wave 3 as {i} of 3 of (C).

Catatan

There are number of different ways to count the bullish structure

Catatan

short-term count

Catatan

The decline was sharp, but it has not made any significant change to the overall structure yet.

Catatan

We simply need to see sharp reverse (within the lower time frame) to the upside to keep wave 4 scenario alive.
If price only produce bearish sideways( or any other corrective patterns), then we could refer to the above count and sell after the breakout.

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

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