WTI recovered after hitting a 2-week low

11 Jul

USOIL prices recovered after hitting a nearly two-week low after a surge in U.S. refining activity last week pushed gasoline and crude inventories down more than expected.

US crude inventories fell 3.4 million barrels in the week ended July 5 to 445.1 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations for a decline of 1.3 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories fell 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, much higher than market expectations of a decline of 600,000 barrels during the July 4 holiday week.
EIA data showed distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 4.9 million barrels to 124.6 million barrels, compared with forecasts for an increase of 800,000 barrels.
EIA said crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma distribution center fell by 702,000 barrels last week.
EIA said refinery processing capacity increased by 317,000 barrels per day last week and capacity utilization increased by 1.9%. Gulf Coast refinery capacity utilization reached its highest level since June 2023.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he is not ready to declare inflation defeated, but he believes the US is still on track to achieve stable prices and low unemployment.
The Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions "as needed," downplaying suggestions that a September rate cut could be seen as a political move ahead of the presidential election in the fall.
Investors are betting on an interest rate cut in September, which could boost economic growth and oil demand. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September rose to 74% from about 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch data.
OPEC on Wednesday maintained its forecast for relatively strong global oil demand growth this year and next, saying resilient economic growth and air travel would support summer fuel use.
However, news about the geopolitical situation can still put pressure on oil prices. The Israeli delegation arrived in Doha to hold four-party negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza.
This trading day will focus on changes in the US CPI and initial jobless claims in June, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials and news related to the geopolitical situation.

The general market focus still revolves around macro data, inflation, Fed, interest rates, and geopolitical situation.

Technical outlook analysis of USOIL
On the daily chart, after WTI crude oil corrected to the downside, it took support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) to rebound, and the upside recovery is also being limited by the Fibonacci retracement level. retreat 0.236%.

If WTI crude oil can continue to recover to take price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it has the conditions to continue to increase in price with a target level then around 84.43USD in the short term.

Meanwhile, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook. For the bearish case, WTI crude oil sold off below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, this also confirmed the trend price channel was broken to give way to a downtrend with a target of around 77.70USD.

During the day, the technical trend of WTI crude oil is bullish with notable technical levels listed as follows.
Support: 81.24 – 80.04USD
Resistance: 82.94 – 84.43USD

1 Agu

Catatan

WTI oil also received a boost from a decline in oil and gasoline inventories in the US, a positive signal for demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil reserves in the US decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week, while gasoline reserves decreased by 3.7 million barrels.

1 Agu

Catatan

19 Agu

Catatan

OIL FALLS MARGINALLY AND BRENT CONTINUES TO TRADE BELOW $80.. WHAT IS AFFECTING OIL MOVEMENTS?

Oil prices fell during Monday's trading, for the second day in a row, with Brent crude continuing to trade below $80 per barrel, after touching its lowest levels since August 9 for the second session amid investor concerns about oil demand levels in China, the world's largest importer of crude, after very negative data last week.

26 Agu

Catatan

Oil prices increased +0.035% after tensions between Israel and Lebanon continued to escalate over the weekend.

In terms of technical analysis, WTI oil prices rebounded before reaching the important support level around 72 USD/barrel. With concerns about US demand, oil prices may have more room to recover.

16 Sep

Catatan

Oil prices (USOIL) recovered slightly to about 68.34 USD/barrel (+1.08%).