U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Updated Chart with todays release)

18 Jan

U.S Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 187k ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 207k
Prev: 203k (revised up from 202k)

A positive release today with initial claims coming in much lower than expected.

Chart Trend
We are very close to taking out the lows from Oct 2022 at 180k claims on the chart. Importantly these charts do not update with revised figures and factoring in revised data the low was 167k in April 2022 (a little earlier and a little lower).

In any event these sorts of lows in Initial Claims have not been seen since May 1969.

Recession Watch
The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom left to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart has not demonstrated increased risk. We need be careful and watch for the average increase of 71k pre recession as illustrated on the chart. Lets see what next months reading informs.

Continuous Claims up Next 💪🏻

1 Feb

Catatan

U.S Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 224k 🚨 Higher Than Expected 🚨
Exp: 213k
Prev: 215k (revised up from 214k)

A marginally higher increase today with initial claims coming in about 11k higher than expected.

Chart Trend
Worth noting these charts do not update with revised figures and factoring in revised data the low was 167k in April 2022 (a little earlier and a little lower). We are now almost 57k in initial claims higher than the revised lowest level of 167k in Apr 2022.

On the chart you will note I have stated a 44k increase (this is based solely on the chart data which is based on the original released figures not the revised ones which I covered in the paragraph above).
Regardless both original and revised figures are below the pre recession average increase of 71k in initial claims. We are however above the minimum increase that has occurred historically which was 35k increase prior to a recessionary event, we are now at a 44k increase based on the chart data (57k based on revised figures). We are getting very close to the average 71k increase. You can see these level lined out on the bottom right of the chart.

🚨 Recession Watch 🚨
The chart above has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk.

⚠️You can see what happened after the lows that formed in May 1969 (purple). Within 13 months and and an increase of 57k in initial jobless claims we then had a recession. We are currently on month 16 with a 57k increase based on revised figures.

PUKA

15 Feb

Catatan

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 212K ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 220K
Prev: 220k (revised up from 218k)

A positive release today with initial claims coming in 8k lower than expected.

15 Feb

Catatan

Chart Trend
We are on the decline since March 2023 from c. 245k and we are slowly moving towards the lows from Oct 2022 at 180k claims. Importantly these charts do not update with revised figures and factoring in revised data the low was 167k in April 2022 (a little earlier and a little lower).

In any event these sorts of lows in Initial Claims have not been seen since May 1969 which is a long term positive view.

Recession Watch
The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart has not demonstrated increased risk. We need be careful and watch for the average pre-recession increase of 71k as illustrated on the chart. At present we moved from revised 180k (revised 167k) to 212k which is only 32-45k increased.

Lets see what next months reading informs.

PUKA

22 Feb

Catatan

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 201K ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 218K
Prev: 213k (revised up from 212k)

A positive release today with initial claims coming in 17k lower than expected. Last week initial claims came in 7k lower than expected. Since the beginning of February 2024 claims have reduced from 227k down to 201k (26,000 reduction in initial claims).

Chart Trend
We are on the decline since March 2023 from c. 245k and we are slowly moving towards the lows from Oct 2022 at 180k claims. Importantly these charts do not update with revised figures and factoring in revised data the low was 167k in April 2022 (a little earlier and a little lower).

In any event these sorts of lows in Initial Claims have not been seen since May 1969 which is a long term positive view.

Recession Watch
The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart has not demonstrated increased risk.

We need be careful and watch for the average pre-recession increase of 71k as illustrated on the chart. At present we moved from revised 180k (revised 167k) to 201k which is only 21-34k increase.

Lets see what next week reading informs.

PUKA

29 Feb

Catatan

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 215K 🚨HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 210K
Prev: 202k (revised up from 201k)

A negative release today with initial claims coming in 13k higher the revised figure of 202k last week and higher than the expected 210k.

Up until the 22nd February 2024 (last week) claims reduced from 227k down to 201k for February (26,000 reduction in initial claims). We now have an increase from 202k (revised) to 215k (updated reduction in initial claims for Feb is now at 13,000).

Chart Trend
We are on the decline since March 2023 from c. 245k and we have been slowly moving towards the lows from Oct 2022 at 180k claims

🚨Recession Watch
The Oct 2022 180k chart lows mean we have had a 35k increase in initial claims to date (over 16 months).

Pre-Recession increases (blue on chart) have demonstrated an average increase of 71k over 14 months. We are not at that average increase in initial claims at present however a recession has occurred on a 35k increase previously over 7 months (prior to COVID-19). And if we factor in revised figures (which are not updated on these chart) the increase is 48k (from 167k initial claims lows in April 2022). So we have been increasing in initial claims for 16 months by c. 35 - 48k (against pre-recession averages of 71k over 14 months).

Factoring in the concern of significantly higher numbers of Continuous Claims (see last post), there are some concerns here that both Continuous and Initial Claims are reaching levels consistent with early onset of recession. Whilst saying that, I acknowledge that these sorts of lows in Initial Claims have not been seen since May 1969 which is a long term positive view (But did no matter pre-covid).

A lot to chew on I know..

PUKA

7 Mar

Catatan

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 217K 🚨HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 215K
Prev: 217k (revised up from 215k)

A slightly negative release today with initial claims coming in 2k higher than the revised up figure of 217k last week and higher than the expected 215k.

The Trend
Since June 2023 claims reduced from 265k down to a low of 189k in Jan 2024. Since Jan 2024 we have increased in initial claims from 189k to 217k (a 28k increase).

Short Term Trend ~ Weekly Chart



Long Term Chart Trend ~ Monthly Chart (Featured above, press play)

🚨Recession Watch
Since Sept 2022 we have had an increase of c.37k in initial claims (over 17 months) - and only an increase from 35 - 37k since the past week.

Pre-Recession increases (blue on chart) have demonstrated an average increase of 71k over 14 months. We are not at that average increase in initial claims at present however a recession has occurred on a 35k increase previously over 7 months (prior to COVID-19). We are now at a c.37k increase over 17 months.

If we factor in revised figures (which are not updated on these charts) the increase is 50k (from 167k initial claims lows in April 2022, earlier). So, at present we have been increasing in initial claims for 17 months by c. 37k as per the chart. Based on revised figures we have been increasing for 23 months by 50k (against pre-recession averages of 71k over 14 months).

Factoring in the concern of significantly higher numbers of Continuous Claims (see last post), there are some concerns here that both Continuous and Initial Claims are reaching levels consistent with early onset of recession. Whilst saying that, I acknowledge that these sorts of lows in Initial Claims have not been seen since May 1969 which is a long term positive view (But did no matter pre-covid).

We continue to monitor the situation each week

PUKA

21 Mar

Catatan

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 210K ✅ 5k Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 215K
Prev: 212k (revised up from 209k)

A positive release today with initial claims coming in 5k lower than expected and 2k lower than last weeks revised 212k.

The Trend
Since June 2023 claims reduced from 265k down to a low of 189k in Jan 2024. Since Jan 2024 we increased in initial claims by 21k from 189k to 210k (where we are currently oscillating).

Short Term Trend ~ Weekly Chart



Long Term Trend ~Monthly Chart



Since Sept 2022 we have had an increase of c.21k in initial claims (over 17 months)

🚨Recession Watch
Pre-Recession increases (blue on chart) have demonstrated an average increase of 71k over 14 months. We are not at that average increase in initial claims at present however a recession has occurred on a 35k increase previously over 7 months (prior to COVID-19). We were at a c.37k increase a number of weeks (after revised figures this is no 30k for two weeks ago).

Factoring in the concern of significantly long term higher numbers of Continuous Claims (see last post), there are some concerns here that both Continuous and Initial Claims are reaching levels consistent with early onset of recession. With both coming in slightly lower this week, it does take the edge off this concern, however continuous claims remain elevated under the historic pre recession norms lens. Whilst saying all of this, I acknowledge that these sorts of lows in Initial Claims have not been seen since May 1969 which is a long term positive view (But did no matter pre-covid).

We continue to monitor the situation each week

PUKA