Is intervention a long term solution?
Japan intervened in the currency markets yesterday to strengthen the Japanese Yen. This resulted in a strong intraday rally of 4% in the Yen (from high to low) on Thursday. However, the intervention is nothing compared to large drop in Yen this year.
Does it makes sense for intervention at this point in time? It is not only costly, it is also not a long term solution as the US continues a contradicting policy as compared to the BoJ. Can Japan continue to intervene for the next few months?
In my opinion, it is unlikely, but depends on BoJ's reserves as well as the inflation rate. This is because there is currently a large yield spread between both countries. The 3-month yield for US is 3.2%, compared to -0.2% for Japan. Therefore, making it extremely expensive for the BoJ to utilize this method. In addition, it makes more sense if other countries join in allowing the USD to depreciate but unlikely to see it happen in this climate given the amount of debt each country has + current inflation + current energy crisis.
Hence, I am still long the dollar against the Yen.
Does it makes sense for intervention at this point in time? It is not only costly, it is also not a long term solution as the US continues a contradicting policy as compared to the BoJ. Can Japan continue to intervene for the next few months?
In my opinion, it is unlikely, but depends on BoJ's reserves as well as the inflation rate. This is because there is currently a large yield spread between both countries. The 3-month yield for US is 3.2%, compared to -0.2% for Japan. Therefore, making it extremely expensive for the BoJ to utilize this method. In addition, it makes more sense if other countries join in allowing the USD to depreciate but unlikely to see it happen in this climate given the amount of debt each country has + current inflation + current energy crisis.
Hence, I am still long the dollar against the Yen.
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