USDJPY MegaPhone pattern: Follow up

14 Sep 2018

I posted the UJ Megaphone pattern yesterday, wondering what might happen

This is a follow up:
It broke upwards today based on various economic news.

Now it looks like a 5 wave impulse whose wave 3 pushed out of the pattern.
So I am thinking of two possible paths to finish the 5 waves up.

14 Sep 2018

Catatan

Here we are, at first possible bounce zone

Close up, looks to want a bounce

16 Sep 2018

Catatan

UJ bounced at my first (most bullish) possible bounce point

But I am not sure if that was ''THE'' bounce. The higher high is convincing, and the methodical test of each line above is also convincing. None the less, I wonder if a test of the top of MegaFone is reequired or not

So I set my SL at 111.894 (just below 111.9 round) in case it does come back to test the TL

Next, drawing a fib on just wave 3, we see the bounce was at the .236 retrace. The other common retrace of wave 4 is to the .382. Thus my two entry points still fit perfectly

All of the above was Friday action, so I do downplay the importance a bit as end of week balancing by banks and funds can cause PA that does not care about TA. So I await market open after the weekend to further gauge the possibilities for this trade.

18 Sep 2018

Catatan

Still on the path, after a slight detour.
Almost had that wave 5 going, until Trump and China caused another dip and strong bounce.

18 Sep 2018

Catatan

First target zone hit
I think it has momentum to hit second zone, maybe after slight pullback

18 Sep 2018

Catatan

Slithering along the ceiling it seems. If we ignore the spike/drop, then the 4.618 of wave 5 impulse might well be the end of larger wave up.

But rather than ignore the spike, I choose to Fib it. And it seems the 1.382 extension of that spike is being defined quite precisely

Pulling back a bit, and looking at both fibs of wave 5, it sure looks like a possible end of the 5. However, that spike extended to the 1.382 (black fib), whereas the most common ''overshoot'' is 1.236. So it definitely added energy to the move. Thus, I think we will go higher, but am running a pretty tight Trailing Stop in case this wave is done...

. will update as time permits

19 Sep 2018

Catatan

wow, a tiny megaphone within the big one. Gotta luv fractals

20 Sep 2018

Catatan

Continuing from this pic about possible end of wave 5

Bulls pushed past the local fibs, and even pierced the higher tf fib zone in red

Getting back to the bigger picture. Wave 5 may well have ended, with a precise tap of the 2.382 fib. Interestingly, wave 4 ended the 1.5 fib extension, not common.

However, it is actually possible that there is one more leg up to be finished. The larger wave 5 (blue) has not shows 5 sub waves of its own. So I wonder if we can still get to the next resistance

21 Sep 2018

Catatan

Both targets hit.
Close most of position, letting a small portion ride with trailing stop