(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also trades flat, as of writing.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The US dollar eked out marginal losses against the Japanese yen Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s slide from near-three-week tops at 107.76.
While this may see price embrace demand at 105.70/106.66 again, we cannot rule out the possibility of fresh upside attempts to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 108.23. Directly above here, traders will also note April 6 high at 109.38 as a feasible resistance point.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Supply at 108.10/107.79, an area that’s capped upside since mid-April, came within a few pips of making an entrance Monday. As you can see, this has been enough to knock the wind out of the dollar’s run as Wednesday tackles support at 106.91, a level converging with a 50.0% ret level at 106.86 and trendline support (106.35).
H1 timeframe:
US trading Wednesday had price action dip through 107 and knock into trendline support (105.99). Technically, this, along with H4 support off 106.91, was enough to rejuvenate a modest USD bid into the close, with price action settling a pip above 107.
Local supply at 107.18/107.11 may hinder upside today, while a H1 close above this barrier could ignite further buying, given a lack of visible supply until addressing 107.67/107.57.
Structures of Interest:
Traders interested in longs off H4 support at 106.91 are likely waiting for a H1 close above supply at 107.18/107.11, as right now buyers appear to lack follow-through.
As underlined above, in terms of upside targets north of 107, H1 supply at 107.67/107.57 appears a logical option.
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