USD/JPY looks ready to soar, but will it wake up Bo(J)zilla?
Diupdate
Last week, USD/JPY spiked higher after a disappointing Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate meeting and today, the price has again broken above resistance. The chart reveals a smaller ascending triangle pattern with a target of 159.80, which remains valid as long as the price trades above 157.14. Will a push higher wake up Bo(J)zilla?
Why is the USD/JPY Rising?
The BoJ's decision to leave rates unchanged last week, despite inflation being reported at 2.5% and potentially reaching 3% soon, was met with disappointment in the market. The central bank's vagueness about its plans to reduce asset purchases further adds to the uncertainty. This scenario supports the carry trade, a strategy where investors can increase their returns by borrowing cheaply in JPY at nearly 0.1% and investing in the USD at 5.5% or the MXN at an eye-watering 11%. With leverage, returns could increase to 22% annually, excluding costs.
Will the BoJ Intervene?
It is unlikely that the BoJ will intervene significantly in the short term. However, given the current fundamentals and chart patterns, the USD/JPY appears poised for further gains. The central bank might attempt to intervene during low liquidity periods, such as when the US markets are offline and before the Asian markets open. Caution is warranted for anyone going long USD/JPY, as they could face off with Bo(J)Zilla.
Why is the USD/JPY Rising?
The BoJ's decision to leave rates unchanged last week, despite inflation being reported at 2.5% and potentially reaching 3% soon, was met with disappointment in the market. The central bank's vagueness about its plans to reduce asset purchases further adds to the uncertainty. This scenario supports the carry trade, a strategy where investors can increase their returns by borrowing cheaply in JPY at nearly 0.1% and investing in the USD at 5.5% or the MXN at an eye-watering 11%. With leverage, returns could increase to 22% annually, excluding costs.
Will the BoJ Intervene?
It is unlikely that the BoJ will intervene significantly in the short term. However, given the current fundamentals and chart patterns, the USD/JPY appears poised for further gains. The central bank might attempt to intervene during low liquidity periods, such as when the US markets are offline and before the Asian markets open. Caution is warranted for anyone going long USD/JPY, as they could face off with Bo(J)Zilla.
Catatan
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