USD/JPY falls ahead of the Fed rate decision where the US central bank is expected to cut rates for the first time in 4 years. But by how much? The market prices in a 64% chance of a 50 bps cut. An outsized cut could send USD lower. USD/JPY trades below its falling trendline. It has recovered from the 2024 low of 139.60 but failed to rise above the 1000 SMA on the 4-hour chart and is once again below 141.70 the August low as sellers eye 140.00. A break below 140.00 would bring 137.60 the July 2023 low as the next level to watch. Should buyers extend gains above the falling trendline and 100 SMA at 143 – 143.50, a move towards the 200 SMA at 145.00 could be on the cards
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