USDJPY 30m long-term Short Preparation

22 Agu

• Strategy preconditions
  USDJPY is still in downtrend state in HTF, take a look at 1D chart, and yet some important 30m liquidity levels have NOT been swept for pushing up, meaning that USDJPY probably is waiting to grab some downward liquidity in order to continue with the HTF downtrend now. On the 30m chart, 3 possible resistance levels have been marked specifying potential liquidity levels for pushing down.
  
  Among those resistance levels, do we care about which level is the exact one for the trend to reverse? No, we do NOT care, because we do not gamble on any of them. Instead, we will wait for a clean downward Break of Structure(BOS) to confirm us that the continuation of downtrend is ready, and then we wait for a pullback to entry Short. This process can be done using LTF such as 5min chart in order to spot those signals, since the current chart is just 30min.
  
  Before you agree or disagree with my idea, please take a look at HTF charts, such as 1H, 4H, and 1D, and mark important levels, so that you can see the big picture clearly.
  
  I have only drawn 2 prediction paths on the chart, it can be many variations, but it's not important. Our job is to wait for LTF confirmation, after any of the liquidity levels has been reached.
  
  Stop Loss:
  Once you've entered Short according to the plan, set your SL above the entry area which emerges in future, the safest SL can be the "Caution Level" at 147.481.
  
  Target Profit:
  The most reasonable TP is at 140.249, but if your are conservative, can exit at level 141.684, both TP levels are far below current chart and can be seen clearly on Daily chart.
  
  
  
  
  
• Cautions
  
  if the "Caution level" has been reached before our desired LTF downward BOS, abandon this strategy, new analysis needs to be made.
  
  I don't recommend LONG at all on USDJPY atm, since no confluences supporting LONG have come out yet.
  
  
  

23 Agu

Catatan

Right now, I have more faith on the Blue prediction path to emerge. Still believing in downtrend strength, still believing in the Daily TP area.