Yen Collapse Back on the Menu

The Yen benefited from the US rate cuts after the Bank of Japan was forced to intervene to prevent further collapse. They succeeded for now, just like in 2022 and other times before. However, recently US treasury yields have started to spike again, sending DXY higher and the Yen lower. TNX going to 5% seems inevitable, which wouldn't be good, but it will be a lot worse once it spikes up to 7-8% and potentially higher.

Their can kicking campaign will soon come to an end. This has been decades in the making and this cycle is nearing the end, the Yen will eventually collapse and the BoJ can't do anything about it. They will most likely intervene again if we go back to 160 and they may succeed temporarily, but eventually judgement day will come.

As for the chart, we have an ascending wedge that was broken to the downside, but has since reclaimed and will most likely go back to 160 in the near future. If it breaks that high from earlier in the year and moves above the upper trendline, that's when it gets scary.