USD IDR hit golden cross daily >> 16.500/17.000 in the longterm

3 jam yang lalu

i think usd idr can 16.500/17.000 in the longterm .

1. Global Economic Conditions
Global Economic Crisis: If there is a global economic crisis or major geopolitical tensions, such as an economic recession hitting major countries (such as the United States or Europe), this could cause demand for safe haven currencies such as the dollar to increase. The increase in demand for dollars could trigger a depreciation of the rupiah against the dollar, and the exchange rate could reach 17,000 IDR.

Fed Interest Rate Hike: If the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) raises interest rates significantly, this could attract more foreign investment to the US, strengthening the dollar and depressing the rupiah exchange rate. This could exacerbate pressure on the rupiah, which could lead to a lower exchange rate (more IDR per USD).

2. Indonesia's Economic Conditions
Balance of Payments Deficit: If Indonesia continues to experience a deficit in its balance of payments, for example through a trade deficit or increasing foreign debt, Indonesia will need more dollars to meet its foreign obligations. This could result in higher demand for dollars in the market, so that the rupiah exchange rate could be further depressed.

Economic and Political Instability: Political or social uncertainty in Indonesia could trigger foreign investors to withdraw their funds from the Indonesian market (capital outflows). This would increase demand for dollars and worsen the rupiah depreciation.

3. Indonesian Inflation and the Dollar
High Inflation in Indonesia: If inflation in Indonesia continues to rise rapidly, this could cause the rupiah's purchasing power to decline. Uncontrolled inflation will increase pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, and could push the dollar exchange rate to a higher number.

4. Commodity Prices and Exports
Decreasing Commodity Prices: Indonesia is a country that is highly dependent on commodity exports such as palm oil, coal, and natural gas. A decline in world commodity prices will reduce state revenues, and this could worsen pressure on the rupiah exchange rate. If exports decline sharply, the pressure on the rupiah could become even stronger.

Dependence on Imports: Indonesia is also highly dependent on imports of essential goods, such as energy (gas and oil). If the prices of these goods rise (for example, world oil prices), then Indonesia will import more dollars to pay for these import bills. This could put pressure on the rupiah exchange rate.

5. Bank Indonesia Intervention
BI Intervention Policy: Bank Indonesia (BI) has the ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market to maintain exchange rate stability. If BI is unable or unwilling to maintain the rupiah exchange rate at a certain level, the exchange rate could depreciate further. However, if BI continues to intervene strongly to maintain the rupiah, then the figure of 17,000 IDR per USD may be difficult to achieve.
6. Market Sentiment and Speculation
Market Perception: If the international market begins to view Indonesia as being in a riskier or less stable condition, investors may start selling assets in IDR and buying dollars, which will worsen the rupiah exchange rate. Speculation can also increase pressure on the rupiah.
Why Could 17,000 IDR Happen?
If the combination of the above factors goes in a bad direction for the rupiah (for example, a global crisis, a widening balance of payments deficit, high inflation, falling commodity prices, and economic or political instability), then it is not impossible that the dollar exchange rate against the rupiah could reach 17,000 IDR or even worse.

However, it is important to note that currency exchange rate prediction is very difficult because it is influenced by various interrelated and dynamic factors. In general, although these factors can cause the rupiah to depreciate, achieving an exchange rate of 17,000 IDR per USD requires very extreme conditions.