USDCNY Topped on Head & Shoulders or Channel Up extension?

2 Okt 2023

It has been long since we last traded the USDCNY pair (May 2023), that gave a solid short-term buy break-out signal (chart below):

The trend has broken aggressively inside a long term Channel Up, which recently broke above the 7.3300 Resistance but only marginally. It stands out that the Resistance breach was made on the Head of a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. If Resistance 1 (7.3300) breaks again, then this pattern gets invalidated and we will expected a test of the dotted line at 7.4000.

On the other hand, a break below Support 1 (7.2450) but more importantly the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that has been supporting since April 19 2023, would be a sell signal towards Support 2 (7.1225) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).

Notice that the 1D RSI has been trading below a Lower Highs trend-line and on the H&S Head made the most recent contact. A similar RSI pattern can be seen in 2022, whose price action also formed a H&S pattern that was eventually a big sell signal.

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