Swissie looking nice for longs around 0.9715ish...

Weekly gain/loss: -0.36%
Weekly closing price: 0.9758

USD/CHF extended losses last week and marginally closed below weekly support at 0.9770. Before we all get too bearish this market, however, consider the base of weekly demand to the left of current price marked with a green circle at 0.9704-0.9783. This area is the reason we have yet to label the broken support a resistance, since weekly price, in our opinion, still has the potential to rotate to the upside this week.

On the daily timeframe, we can see that price ended the week closing within striking distance of a daily support at 0.9711 (positioned directly beneath a daily 50.0% value at 0.9732). Should a test of this level be seen today/this week and fails to hold, the next point of interest can be seen at 0.9565-0.9611: a daily demand area that boasts strong bullish momentum.

The pair lost more than 100 pips amid Friday’s US segment, reaching lows of 0.9735 on the day. In one fell swoop, H4 price stormed through multiple H4 tech supports as the dollar came under pressure amid escalating political tension in the US. After bottoming at 0.9735, the unit mildly pared losses into the close causing H4 price to revisit the underside of a recently broken H4 Quasimodo support at 0.9784.

Suggestions: With weekly support at 0.9770 still in the fight, and a daily support seen not too far off at 0.9711, a long around the completion point of a H4 AB=CD (black arrows) bullish point at 0.9715 could be an option today/this week. Stop placement here is tricky though because below 0.9715 is the 0.97 handle which could potentially act as a magnet to price. For that reason, we believe the safest position for stops is around 0.9666 (below August/October’s opening levels at 0.9672/0.9680 – not seen on the screen). Yes, it is a rather large stop, but let’s keep in mind that we are trading from higher-timeframe levels here, so gains should equally be just as big!

Data points to consider: US factory orders m/m at 3pm GMT.


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