USD CAD - Consolidated long pathway

23 Sep 2021

Hello Traders and Analysts,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.

Master Key for zones

• Red = Three Month
  
• Blue = Monthly
  
• Purple = weekly
  
• Scarlet [Red] - Four day
  
• Orange = Daily
  
• Green = 8 Hour
  
• Grey = 4hour
  
• Pink = 1 hour
  

Please note:
Data and charts have been removed - refer to the analysis above which shows further information relating to the analysis as a whole.
Previous analysis's

Monthly Imbalance

Update:


Weekly Imbalances
Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close.
The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable.
1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested.
2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later.

Update of the weekly chart
Price will look to the 0.382 Fibonacci but due to be trading right now within the 0.236/0.382 zone, the trend is still bullish and strong, so ideally around 1.265-80 has a high pivot point - purely based on Daily timeframes.


Further explanation:
3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle.



Fibonacci Extension
Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets.
Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts.

Weekly - Fibonacci extension [inverse]


Daily Fibonacci
The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe.
A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern.


Possible pathway - showing a volatile scenario


USD CAD vs DXY
What does this show here?
Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe.
With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak.
This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. The breakout has now occurred and price is now retracing from the weekly zone on USD CAD - however, the pullback will become bullish again with the pathway showing a clear upside of USD strength and DXY room to grow.


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