USD/CAD First Yearly Close > 1.4000 Since 2002
It was a blistering Q4 for the US Dollar and that's especially true in USD/CAD. While USD reversed aggressive at the Q4 open while getting a shot-in-the-arm around the U.S. Presidential election, in USD/CAD there was also the added drive of tariff potential after President-elect Trump threated a 25% tariff on Canadian goods unless the border was shored up. That comment came on November 26th and led to a bullish spike in the pair, which did recede; but after that the 1.4000 level began to show as support and buyers pushed another strong move through December trade. There were especially noticeable drives on both the NFP report and the FOMC rate decision.
After the Trump comment re: 25% tariffs on Canada, PM Trudeau flew down to Florida to try to appeal to Trump. Trump's response after seems jovial in nature, as he called Canada the 51st U.S. state and PM Trudeau a 'governor.'
I think the big question here is whether Trump wants a strong U.S. Dollar which a push towards austerity could produce. And if that happens, weakness could show in equities which could then bring questions around his economic agenda.
I'm expecting something similar to what showed in 2017, when shortly after inauguration Trump opined that the U.S. Dollar was 'too strong,' after which the currency went into a tailspin for the rest of the year, even as the Fed hiked rates three times in 2017 and four times in 2018.
If we do see mean reversion in the US Dollar, USD/CAD could remain attractive for similar themes. For now bulls are still pushing and next resistance is the same 1.4690 area that was respected back in early-2016 and again in 2020. - js
After the Trump comment re: 25% tariffs on Canada, PM Trudeau flew down to Florida to try to appeal to Trump. Trump's response after seems jovial in nature, as he called Canada the 51st U.S. state and PM Trudeau a 'governor.'
I think the big question here is whether Trump wants a strong U.S. Dollar which a push towards austerity could produce. And if that happens, weakness could show in equities which could then bring questions around his economic agenda.
I'm expecting something similar to what showed in 2017, when shortly after inauguration Trump opined that the U.S. Dollar was 'too strong,' after which the currency went into a tailspin for the rest of the year, even as the Fed hiked rates three times in 2017 and four times in 2018.
If we do see mean reversion in the US Dollar, USD/CAD could remain attractive for similar themes. For now bulls are still pushing and next resistance is the same 1.4690 area that was respected back in early-2016 and again in 2020. - js
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