USD Bullish Rationale :
1. Optimism tax reform bill
2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment
3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar
CAD Bearish Rationale :
1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD is not in the price yet hence plenty more to the downside for CAD
Factors could invalidate the trading plan :
1. Any positive development in the oil market (Oil Rally is generally supportive to the CAD)
2. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Building Permit numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 1.7%, Prior : 3.8%) - Predicted Surprise : 1.60% (Reuters Poll)
3. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Ivey PMI numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 62.7, Prior : 63.8)
4. USD - Negative (Actual > Expected) Initial Job Claims Numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 240k, Prior : 238k) - Reuters SmartEstimate (C) : 237.4k
Levels to trade :
A : If price breaks and close above 128.100, I will Long the pair as long as I have the minimum 2:1 reward/risk ratio. The target price rationale are : a) it is within the average daily range b) psychological level (i.e 00s) c)
B : I will not rule out a correction towards the daily pivot. In the event of this happening, I will look for technical reason to Long this pair. The target price rationale are : it is within the average daily range b) It is potentially today's high
1. Optimism tax reform bill
2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment
3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar
CAD Bearish Rationale :
1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD is not in the price yet hence plenty more to the downside for CAD
Factors could invalidate the trading plan :
1. Any positive development in the oil market (Oil Rally is generally supportive to the CAD)
2. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Building Permit numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 1.7%, Prior : 3.8%) - Predicted Surprise : 1.60% (Reuters Poll)
3. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Ivey PMI numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 62.7, Prior : 63.8)
4. USD - Negative (Actual > Expected) Initial Job Claims Numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 240k, Prior : 238k) - Reuters SmartEstimate (C) : 237.4k
Levels to trade :
A : If price breaks and close above 128.100, I will Long the pair as long as I have the minimum 2:1 reward/risk ratio. The target price rationale are : a) it is within the average daily range b) psychological level (i.e 00s) c)
B : I will not rule out a correction towards the daily pivot. In the event of this happening, I will look for technical reason to Long this pair. The target price rationale are : it is within the average daily range b) It is potentially today's high