Trump reshaping Canada’s election and Loonie

Six weeks ago, a Conservative victory in the next Canadian election seemed inevitable.

Now, that certainty is fading. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's support from the American right, including Elon Musk, is becoming a potential liability as Canada faces an unprecedented challenge: the U.S. president openly questioning its viability as a nation, threatening tariffs, and even suggesting annexation.

A recent Nanos poll shows 39.6% of Canadians see new Liberal leader Mark Carney as the most qualified to negotiate with Trump, compared to 26% for Poilievre.

This uncertainty may be weighing on the Canadian dollar. USDCAD broke lower last week, falling below key support (1.4260 - 1.4466), signaling a shift toward sellers. However, the 1-hour chart shows a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback.