USDBRL might be building its 3rd impulsive wave.

14 Mei 2023

Not a financial advice.
To support Biden's plan "Invest in America", FED will need to keep raising interest rates to contain #inflation, and make it attractive for international investors.
Meanwhile, Brazilian economy is shrinking, with President looking to lower interest rates which it is what was done in 2003. but this time is indeed different, since the USA isn't willing to see its money plowing into emerging markets.
DXY is also building a nice comeback. this is momentarily about to change in my POV.

14 Jun 2023

Catatan

Today It reached our second important level.
Coincidently the FED signaled two more rate hikes ahead.
I don't understand much about the bond market, but I imagine they are lowering the USD to lower their debt. And then after they sell it, and they raise the USD back up. They know their game.

22 Jun 2023

Catatan

Second Important level just broke. Going for the first pivot point at $4.68

27 Jul 2023

Catatan

The FED increased interest rates to 5.5% yesterday, coinciding with the first pivot point on the chart. The Brazilian government desires to lower rates to boost their economy, but this action may cause the USD to surge in value. While some Brazilians may benefit from this in the short term, it could lead to USD skyrocketing towards R$6 in the near future. We must keep a close eye on this situation.

12 Agu 2023

Catatan

Brazilian government lowered rates by .5, let's all watch but USD might be reversing above $5.

14 Sep 2023

Catatan

It has been a month since the Brazilian government lowered interest rates, resulting in the USD gaining strength back to $5 momentarily. This is a crucial moment as inflation data in the USA is hotter than expected, putting the FED in a challenging situation. The DXY is breaking above 105, and with an increase in interest rates in the US, it is likely to push towards 110. If the Brazilian central bank lowers the interest rate again while the USA Fed raises it, USDBRL could test a high of 5.15, which is where the 500MA currently stands.

3 Okt 2023

Catatan

Third wave starting to confirm. The global crisis that's coming, will be something studied many years ahead.

16 Nov 2023

Catatan

Here we are at support again, and The FED is between the cross and the sword.
To make treasuries more attractive, they had to drop the USD and inject some liquidity in the markets, interesting that happens right after Brazil's drop interest rates for the second time. They want that money, but the world is on alert on the USD, just watch BTC and cryptos... Something is changing.

28 Nov

Trade aktif

Here we are, a year and a half after my initial analysis. The global macroeconomic landscape has become even more challenging. While BTC has drawn attention away from Trump's election, the USD has been steadily climbing the charts, indicating that major players may be pulling their USD out of the markets, even though the Federal Reserve has lowered rates, seemingly to support the Democrats—an action that appears to have been in vain. On the other hand, the BRL is struggling under the weight of Lula and Haddad's policies. Until the next election, Brazil will face significant challenges in regaining investor confidence. With USDBRL consolidating above 6, we could see it reach 7 or higher within the next 2 to 4 years.