End of Week Analyses for NFP data

4 Okt

🚨 October 4th 🚨

Welcome Traders,

In a few hours we have the release of the most highly anticipated economic data being released. This is none other than Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) which summarizes the stats of all the the non-agricultural jobs in the USA. This labor market data is important to what the US Fed Reserve pays attention to in order to gage interest rate cuts. As a result investors and major institutional banks (which are the major market movers) tend to react heavily to the data in anticipation to that of the Fed Reserve.

If the data comes out higher than expected this indicates an increase in non-agricultural jobs in the USA and thus a strong economy. But unfortunately a strong economy is not what the Fed Reserve needs to see in order to further cut rates and so investors and institutional banks will react negatively to the data resulting in a bearish reaction in equities. Conversely, if the data comes out lower than expected, signalling a weaker economy from lesser jobs, this will cause a bullish reaction in US equities.

Given where we are in market structure, there is no telling that price wants to continue its downtrend. A Daily HL was signalled at 41,885.6. Using my fibs this HL point broke through the 23.6% sitting in the middle between that and the 38.2% volatility level. Historically, price has always respected one of the key fib levels and so this tells me that although we got a mid point rejection from support, price will resume its downtrend to respect the next fib level of interest which is the 38.2% at 41,672.1.



However not without a short term push to the upside. Given the rejection on the Daily HL candle, we can expect todays daily candle to first have a bullish momentum completing the rejection from support before resuming its downtrend. My reasoning for this is because on the higher TF price has been trading in a consolidation range for roughly 2 weeks now and on Thursday we finally got a breakout to the downside retesting last week's lows. This breakout can be seen as a liquidity grab taking out any buyers who were trying to buy from the support. The fact that price broke out but closed within the consolidation range is a perfect example of liquidity grab. Following the initial breakout at NYSE open on Thursday, price came back down 4hours later to retest those lows before resuming bullish back into range.



Price has not managed to go back there since which tells me there's some buying pressure.

As I have indicated by the three consecutive red arrows, price has tapped into the grey highlighted support zone three times. If price remains above this support at 41,918.7 the buys will remain valid. But for this to happen, NFP data needs to come out lower than expected to spark a volatile bullish reaction before coming back down for the rest of NY session. If this is the case, my TPs of interest are at 42,152.9 at the 61.8% fib level and 42,252.6 at the 78.6% fib level. After which I will look for sells back down to 41,885.6 at the previous Daily HL.