$US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low.

US10Y is going through a volatile period. After ‘Liberation Day’ the standard deviation if the movements in the US10Y has gone up significantly affecting the Equity and Bond indexes. This has been volatility story for the last 1-2 months. Now we are touching the midpoint of the downward sloping parallel channel which lies at 4.1 %. On the medium term the downward sloping channel indicates we can touch the Midpoint of 4.0 %.

The downward spiral in the rates will continue for the foreseeable future because the Fed will decrease rates, and this will put pressure on the $US10Y. In the long term the rates will touch 3.5% by end of the year.

Verdict: US10Y to 4% in near term and 3.5% by Dec 2025. Short $US10Y.