Brent oil - Bearish divergence, gasoline inventories rise

9 Jun 2016

Resistance - $52.83, $53.05, $54.00

Support - $52.43, $51.91, $51.50

• Us weekly inventory data released yesterday showed inventories fell for the third consecutive week, dropping by 3.2 million barrels versus expectations for a 2.7 million-barrel drawdown. This is a good news since it shows suppliers trust the current rally in prices
  

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• However, gasoline inventories grew by 1 million barrels and distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.8 million barrels. Markets were expecting a drawdown here as well. This might be a one-off figure but could be enough reason for bulls to take some profit, especially since the prices are overbought as per daily as well as intraday RSI.
  

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  Consequently, we may see prices breach support at $52.43 and drop to rising trend line support on hourly around $52.00 levels. A violation there might trigger a slide to $51.50.
  

• On the other hand, a rebound from rising trend line level followed by a break above yesterday's high of $52.83 would shift risk in favor of a further rally towards $54.00 levels.