UGAZ: Bounced, But Still Forming a Bottom
Diupdate
NG: Natural Gas June futures rallied on Thursday into EIA report, which showed in-line storage build of $103 bcf. Natural gas stocks were 799 bcf higher than this time last year. The fundamentals remain on the bearish side with low consumption and warming weather. However, the economy is reopening, which is a bullish factor.
NG chart dipped after reaching nearest resistance at $1.7 level, still within existing downward trend. Short-term support was found at $1.66. The chart appears to be forming a bottom, bouncing off oversold condition observed earlier on 4 Hr chart. Short-term momentum is positive, medium-term momentum is negative pointing toward consolidation, or lower prices. Support is seen at $1.6, resistance at $1.85.
UGAZ: Based on Daily charts MACD, Chande Momentum, and CCI, a definitive bottom has not been formed yet. No divergences between momentum and price, similar to the pattern observed in late March, have been observed at this time. However, 4 Hr RSI chart (not listed here) showed a bottoming pattern at $1.6 NG level. For UGAZ, a level around $16 may hold as support, as long as NG price stays above $1.65 level. Otherwise, $15 handle may correspond to $1.6 level on NG chart.
NG chart dipped after reaching nearest resistance at $1.7 level, still within existing downward trend. Short-term support was found at $1.66. The chart appears to be forming a bottom, bouncing off oversold condition observed earlier on 4 Hr chart. Short-term momentum is positive, medium-term momentum is negative pointing toward consolidation, or lower prices. Support is seen at $1.6, resistance at $1.85.
UGAZ: Based on Daily charts MACD, Chande Momentum, and CCI, a definitive bottom has not been formed yet. No divergences between momentum and price, similar to the pattern observed in late March, have been observed at this time. However, 4 Hr RSI chart (not listed here) showed a bottoming pattern at $1.6 NG level. For UGAZ, a level around $16 may hold as support, as long as NG price stays above $1.65 level. Otherwise, $15 handle may correspond to $1.6 level on NG chart.
Catatan
With such a steep decline, we may not get a double bottom, but rather a V-shape recovery. However, with medium-term momentum still negative, a consolidation before going higher is more likely.
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