UFI - Textiles and Leather Goods

4 Mei 2020

HEEEEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

This is going to be a tutorial on something as much as it is just me writing notes on something i would like to play.
-- What does the phrase "something I would like to play" mean?
---- It means, i saw that throughout the weekend, this particular companies stock went up in price. It's cheap, and it has enough people involved in the movement of the price that it will make a good jump in a certain amount of time. Whether that jump is going to be UP or DOWN is going to be analyzed by a couple of techniques that I've learned. Since I'm a super noob and all my experience is youtubery and apps and whatever, I am making this specifically for me to teach you(mah daw Ki) and to teach myself what I know. Lol. In this method, we can keep a record and track it later, plus open up to others experience.

Let's get to it.

This is the basic chart of the entire lifetime of the stock. Red is down, Green is up.

4 Mei 2020

Catatan

When you're looking at these charts, you're looking to see where the price is moving toward to, by comparing it to where it has already been. ya dig?

4 Mei 2020

Catatan

There are different strategies for trading, and each one is going to have different questions for the same chart, but everything you need is in the chart.
Luckily there are many resources like this awesome ass platform to stuff like this in.

My particular focus will be on an options contract. I want to play this particular company, because I can afford it, and it's going through some changes in this time that we can all take advantage of, hopefully.

Based on my play, I want to look at how this might react within the YEAR!
A lot of time to play, and possibly very cheap to get into, so long time, low risk.
That's the goal.

4 Mei 2020

Catatan

This rainbow you see here is a tool that shows how much the price has fallen from the most recent highest high, and lowest low. Each color labels a percentage in that, usually telling you where it's at in momentum. I don't know if that's easy to understand by how I explain it but much information is available on the Fibonacci Retracement.



The only thing I need from this tool here is that price has been suffering from a huge drop from a long time ago already and been staying within that low level for a enough time to say that it probably won't go much higher for a while.

Let's zoom in a little to get a better idea of what's going on, a little more recently.

4 Mei 2020

Catatan

Here I turned on some indicators.
An indicator is some wizard magic that is being freely distributed to us. You can't trust magic, it does what it wants and it may or may not help you, but you can use it to help you get an idea.



Now I'm not going to explain them, because I can't do it better than the internet reference would.
It's the MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence
and the RSI - Relative Strength Index

Also, the lines that are being drawn on the chart are support and resistance lines. Basic trading analysis tools that tells you a roof and a ceiling of recent price movements. Please research also.

I'll tell you what they mean to me.

The RSI is telling me that this current price is very low for the average.
(That's pretty clear in the price movement itself)..
The MACD is telling that it's trading at a lower average than normal and is currently in a DOWN trend.
The lines are telling me that whatever the hell it was going through before doesn't matter anymore. It just had a drastic fall over the norm and will likely retaliate in the same manner, but probably not for the same amount of time.
(Basically that the price might fall even more drastically or that it'll rise a lot more than before over time).

***************** Analysis ******************* LEVEL 0

Unifi is manufacturing company. The company processes and sells commodity yarns, specialized yarns, and pr--whatever..The point I see is that they're in fabric production, which overall should be and will be doing good in this time. Masks and what not. The recent spike is a good indicator that movement is happening, and because it recently had the tiniest sliver of a rally, there's a possibility that will also move again quickly. The point here is to determine in what direction.

Let's zoom in some more.

4 Mei 2020

Catatan

that tiny sliver of a rally is actually a mirror image to the current market trend.
The market is really the WHOLE THING included, but its made up of a lot of different entities within entities. The biggest ones, top dawgs, are the
S&P 500 , NASDAQ, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL.
I don't know how they are divided and I'm sure that's super basic but to my ignorant ass self, these three are straight up connected anyway and move in the same ways. Some have different shares in different sectors, but for the most part they are all intertwined so it does not matter what they are differently, only that they pretty determine how things are going to move overall. Don't believe me, bro? I'll bring it..



This is the Fib retracement on the recent move that happened with the virus. On Jan 29 this stock and the "market" (orange line in chart) were at an all time high (relatively) and suddenly BOOM. All of it came down together and the market rebalanced, as well as companies rebalanced their portfolios. (Took money out of one place and placed into other places).

Just like a freaking mirror image this stock is moving in parallel to the market.

***************** Analysis ******************* LEVEL 1

Call me a skeptic, but I sense the market is starting to take a little downturn. I don't know how long it will last but it seems that it's in the process of falling down. Week by week. The position I want to open is for December.

The Fib Retrace tells that it's close to breaking out from its lowest level, I think a bullish( sign. Every time it's close, it jumps out a little to feel special, and with that new pump, some of them went up. We don't know if another pumps comes out of nowhere, and the grandmaster Buffett has spoken in a bullish price go up) tone about a bearish price go down) economy...

Bull + 0.3

The MACD is showing that it has currently been in an uptrend (obviously, that's why we are here), and that even though the averages are close to each other, there's still time for it move, but it has been moving for a while in the same direction, there needs to be a correction coming soon.

If you notice, that little uptrend has just been a tiny response to the S&P movements. Straight up, if tomorrow the S&P drops, which futures say it will, this will drop heavily too.
This is actually a good thing for this play I am doing. It means that the price of the options I want to buy are going to be much lower, so maybe I can get a get in with my price target. Ganstah.

I can already see to myself that I'll probably be buying a long call and long put at a cheap ass price so I can just reap rewards from both movements, if they ever come. I could easily spend this 40 bucks, and just lose it completely, but I'm going to give myself until the end of the year for it.

The RSI is actually in the middle and has been uptrending. So it's completely natural for it to have a little fall before a rise, or even vice versa.


Bull = 0.3
Bear = 0.4

It could go anyway right now, but it's probably gonna go down.

4 Mei 2020

Catatan

This is what happens when you go in deeper.




FUUUUUCCCCKKK THAAATTTT

With a small amount of people, the amount of price movement is INSANE.
Definitely profitable $$$$$$$$$$$, hahaha, it's scary though. I don't like it.
I can't come up with anything other than an overarching play where I buy like 5 contracts on both sides for like 5 bucks each and just see what happens.

$100 loss max
infinite return on upside, maybe like $1000 gain on downside.
If i'm right about how options work, lmfao.


I hope we can all do it together and all of us win :)
Blessings to you in this time of apocalyptic mismanagement.