All Targets Hit ... Expect Relief Rally | $NYA #NYSE #Yellen

17 Apr 2014

Friends,

Following is a trade recapitulation and added analysis of Twitter:


TRADE RECAP:

On February 5th, my predictive analysis and forecasting system raised the question:

"Which Way To The Bear Party?"
- tradingview.com/v/rCj8VcOp/

Within a few candles, price move towards the target, as I answered:

" ... This Way, Replied The Bears."
- tradingview.com/v/c3I1LY8X/

On the following week, the system further defined the a new bearish target, namely: TG-2 = 40.26 - 13 FEB 2014:

"Update: Bearish; New probable Target Low"
- tradingview.com/v/QEs1pVG0/


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

At this point, I am expecting a relief rally to occur. Looking at price action, a pattern trader might have seen that the lowest of our target fell in line with the completion of a Shark. While a Shark pattern is what I call a "pseudo-pattern" for being defined by an unusual "Zero-X-A-B-C", it is often the gatekeeper to a "normal" pattern named by Scott Carney as a 5-0 Pattern, "normal" as it is defined by the standard X-A-B-C-D points.

Hence, if a relief rally should occur - as it seems to be on its way since hitting our secondary target dead-on - this would place a 5-0 pattern completion Point-D @ 57.21.

Taken in its exchange context, one should also consider that NYSE is effecting a rally to levels that remain sub-surface relative to its all-time high, as follows:

#NYSE - NYA
- tradingview.com/e/paqoMPYc/

This NYA chart demonstrates that within three daily candles, bearish advanced are being erased. However, as defined by my E.A.G.L.E range (10.624.04/10584.23), my predictive analysis and forecasting is capping this relief rally to a target in line with the upper value of that range, namely:

- NYA Target: "TG-1 = 10624.04 - 17 APR 2014".


PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING:

Looking at the TWTR chart, my predictive analysis and forecasting has defined a bullish target as:

- TWTR Target: "TG-1 = 57.81 - 17 APR 2014".

Turns out that this target is barely 0.60 points away from the 5-0 pattern (57.21) just defined above, thus adding credence to the on-going rally and the probability of this level having some restrictive merit against said rally.


OVERALL:

A relief rally seems underway, as per the TWTR chart and its illustrated exchange context, NYA. From a broader fundamental perspective, the Fed has remained unclear as to which data it would use to effect or contradict its gradual easing removal. A surprising bearish data release could therefore carry price above the targets defined in above comments, even if Yellen was to merely jawbone the market without acting on her words.

However, I would recommend taking a closer look at both the 3-Month and benchmark 10-year treasuries for any price rallying, as this alone might suffice to time a premature rate increase. If and once this occurs, equity markets would have only one direction to chose.

For the time being, I will leave the system-defined directional indicator as "Neutral", even though my own ("human") directional bias remains neutral to bearish, based on the patterns, predictive and fundamental analyses discussed above.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting


Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: 4xForecaster)


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Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster

26 Sep 2016

Catatan

26 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Lower low remains probable, despite interim rallying with significant overhead bearish entrenchment:


Cheers,

David Alcindor